ECRI’s WLI Growth Index improved, and remains positive. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index
Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.
Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
ECRI WLI Ticks Up
A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week to the highest in over three years, while the annualized growth rate improved to its highest in over a month, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.8 in the week ended Aug 2, which was the highest since May 2010, from 131.7 the previous week. The previous week was originally reported as 131.8.
The index’s annualized growth rate climbed to 5.3 percent, the highest level since late June, from 4.9 percent a week earlier.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The June update for June shows the rate of economic growth again declined month-to-month – but is still positive. The current values:
U.S. Coincident Index
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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge
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ECRI Future Inflation Gauge Dips
U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge slipped to 102.9 from a downwardly revised 103.1 in June, originally reported as 103.3, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
“With the USFIG dropping to an 11-month low, U.S. inflation pressures continue to ebb,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Lagging index.. The June economy’s rate of growth has remained in a very tight stable range since the end of the Great Recession – however, it appears to have some degradation (less good).
U.S. Lagging Index
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source: ECRI