Econintersect: Week 31 of 2013 ending 3 August shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) was mixed according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). Railcar count is down, and intermodal count is up.
- Weekly overall data is up but not as strongly as last week, and up even stronger ignoring coal and grain;
- Four week rolling average is improving, and better than the rolling average one year ago;
- 13 week rolling average is improving, and better than the rolling average one year ago;
- 52 week rolling average is improving, and better than the rolling average one year ago.
The dynamics clearly were declining, and this is the second week of improving data.
A summary of the data:
The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported that total U.S. rail traffic was mixed for July 2013, with intermodal setting a new July record for average weekly volume and carload volume decreasing slightly overall compared with July 2012.
Intermodal traffic in July totaled 1,218,625 containers and trailers, up 2.5 percent (29,328 units) compared with July 2012. The weekly average of 243,725 units in July 2013 was the highest for any July in history. Carloads originated in July totaled 1,384,742, down 0.5 percent (7,532 carloads) compared with the same month last year.
Thirteen of the 20 commodity categories tracked by the AAR each month saw year-over-year carload increases in July 2013 over the same month last year. Commodities with the biggest carload increases in July included petroleum and petroleum products, up 24.9 percent or 13,089 carloads; crushed stone, gravel and sand, up 11.7 percent or 11,004 carloads; iron and steel scrap, up 19.4 percent or 3,307 carloads; stone, clay, and glass products, up 7.9 percent or 3,091 carloads; and steel and other primary metal products, up 4.7 percent or 2,337 carloads.
Commodity categories with carload declines last month included coal, down 4.1 percent or 24,072 carloads from July 2012; and grain, down 9.5 percent or 8,433 carloads.
Excluding coal and grain, total U.S. carloads were up 3.5 percent, or 24,973 carloads, in July 2013 compared with July 2012.
“Historically, coal and grain together typically account for around 50 percent of tonnage and around 30 percent of revenue for major U.S. railroads, so their importance to railroads is hard to overstate,” said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray. “That said, coal and grain traffic is down for reasons that have little or nothing to do with the state of the economy. The remaining rail traffic segments are mixed, reflecting an economy that’s moving in the right direction but not firing on all cylinders.”
AAR today also reported mixed rail traffic for the week ending August 3, 2013. U.S. railroads originated 287,372 carloads last week, down 0.4 percent compared with the same week last year, while intermodal volume for the week totaled 255,024 units, up 4.8 percent compared with the same week last year. Total U.S. rail traffic for the week ending August 3 was 542,396 carloads and intermodal units, up 2.0 percent compared with the same week last year.
Seven of the 10 carload commodity groups tracked on a weekly basis posted increases compared with the same week in 2012, including petroleum and petroleum products, up 19.0 percent, and nonmetallic minerals and products, up 11.5 percent. The groups showing a decrease in weekly traffic included grain, down 10.9 percent.
USA coal production is down 4.0% same week year-over-year, but coal over the last three months has become a neutral to positive dynamic on rail.
| This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
| This week Year-over-Year | -0.4% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| Ignoring coal and grain | 2.7% | ||
| Year Cumulative to Date | -1.3% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
[click on graph below to enlarge]
Current Rail Chart
/images/z rail1.png
From EIA.gov:
For the week ended August 03, 2013:
Source: AAR
