The unchanged and positive readings are very near 2013 lows. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index
Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.
Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
ECRI WLI Growth Unchanged
A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week to its highest level since April 2011, while the annualized growth rate held steady, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.3 in the week ended July 19 from 131.2 the previous week.
The index’s annualized growth rate was unchanged at 4.5 percent.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The June update for June shows the rate of economic growth again declined month-to-month – but is still positive. The current values:
U.S. Coincident Index
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Drops
Price pressures continue to lessen in June, according to a report released Friday by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
The ECRI U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 103.3 last month from 103.7 in May and 105.5 in April. The gauge is designed to measure the economy’s underlying price pressures and predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle.
“With the [index] falling further to a seven-month low, U.S. inflation pressures have clearly waned,” says Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI director.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Lagging index.. The June economy’s rate of growth has remained in a very tight stable range since the end of the Great Recession – however, it appears to have some degradation (less good).
U.S. Lagging Index