Blue Line 4 Week Average
The market was expecting 340,000 to 345,000 vs the 354,000 reported. The more important 4 week moving average degraded, moving from 345,250 (reported last week) to 348,250.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is some seasonality which seems to have migrated into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons removes this seasonality. The initial claims are 10.1% lower (improving from 9.8% last week) than they were in this week in 2012.
The rate of improvement this week is similar to the rate of improvement seen in 2012 (as evidenced on the above chart) – 2013 claim levels are now within the normal range (around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims) of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion (see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending June 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 354,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 336,000. The 4-week moving average was 348,250, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 345,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending June 8, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 8 was 2,951,000, a decrease of 40,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 2,991,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,978,750, an increase of 7,000 from the preceding week’s revised average of 2,971,750.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line)