Blue Line 4 Week Average
The market was expecting 345,000 to 350,000 vs the 334,000 reported. The more important 4 week moving average improved, moving from 352,500 (reported last week) to 345,250.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is some seasonality which seems to have migrated into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons removes this seasonality. The initial claims are 9.8% lower (improving from 6.9% last week) than they were in this week in 2012.
It should be expected that the rate of improvement this week is similar to the rate of improvement seen in 2012 (as evidenced on the above chart) – 2013 claim levels are now within the normal range (around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims) of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion (see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending June 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 334,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 346,000. The 4-week moving average was 345,250, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 352,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending June 1, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 1 was 2,973,000, an increase of 2,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 2,971,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,967,250, a decrease of 12,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 2,980,000.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line)