Econintersect: Week 22 of 2013 ending 01 June shows same week total rail traffic improved according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). Rail for the last month has been showing positive growth dynamics – but the previous week’s bad data has caused decline in short term rolling averages.
- Weekly data is up, and up ignoring coal and grain;
- Four week rolling average is declining, and statistically equal to the rolling average one year ago;
- 13 week rolling average is improving, and better than the rolling average one year ago;
- 52 week rolling average improved, and better than the rolling average one year ago;
A summary of the data:
“The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported that total U.S. rail traffic increased for the month of May 2013 as well as for the week ending June 1, 2013. May 2013 saw the first year-over-year monthly total carload increase in 16 months, and the 42nd straight monthly increase in intermodal traffic.
Intermodal traffic in May totaled 1,214,116 containers and trailers, up 3 percent (35,790 units) compared with May 2012. The weekly average of 242,823 units for May was the highest weekly intermodal average for any May in history. Carloads originated in May totaled 1,401,584, up 0.7 percent (9,551 carloads) compared with the same month last year.
Eleven of the 20 major commodity categories tracked on a monthly basis by AAR saw year-over-year increases in May compared with the same month last year. Commodities with the biggest carload increases in May included petroleum and petroleum products, up 41.8 percent or 20,837 carloads; motor vehicles and parts, up 6.2 percent or 4,916 carloads, and crushed stone, gravel and sand, up 5.2 percent or 5,191 carloads.
Commodity categories with carload declines last month included grain, down 20 percent or 19,895 carloads; primary metal products, down 7.2 percent or 3,989 carloads; and grain mill products, down 6.9 percent or 3,332 carloads.
Year-over-year monthly carloads excluding coal and grain were up 3.6 percent or 26,772 carloads.
“The economy is still not firing on all cylinders, and rail traffic in May reflects that,” said AAR Senior Vice President of Policy and Economics John Gray. “Pockets of rail traffic growth, such as autos, nonmetallic minerals, and commodities related to crude oil extraction are being countered by continued weakness in steel-related commodities, paper, and grain, among others. Like everyone else, railroads are hopeful that the economy will soon finally shake off its malaise and start reaching its potential.”
USA coal production is down 1.1% same week year-over-year, and coal over the last few months is becoming a neutral to positive dynamic on rail.
| This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
| This week Year-over-Year | 1.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
| Ignoring coal and grain | 4.7% | ||
| Year Cumulative to Date | -1.7% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
[click on graph below to enlarge]
Current Rail Chart
/images/z rail1.pn
From EIA.gov:
For the week ended June 01, 2013:
Source: AAR
