Econintersect: The consolidated economic report from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts (Beige Book) characterizes economic activity that “increased at a modest to moderate pace since the previous report “. The previous report said economic activity “expanded at a moderate pace during the reporting period from late February to early April“.
Please see the end of this post for words the Federal Reserve uses when the economy is entering a recession.
Overall, the report indicates the economy is expanding, but likely not as fast as the previous period. No indications of any significant sector degrading, or signs of any significant improvement in the rate of growth.
The summary for the 05 June 2013 release reads as follows:
Overall economic activity increased at a modest to moderate pace since the previous report across all Federal Reserve Districts except the Dallas District, which reported strong economic growth. The manufacturing sector expanded in most Districts since the previous Beige Book. Most Districts noted slight to moderate gains in consumer spending and a moderate increase in vehicle sales. Tourism showed signs of strength in several Districts. A wide variety of business services expanded, and transportation traffic increased for producer, consumer, and trade goods. Residential real estate and construction activity increased at a moderate to strong pace in all Districts. Commercial real estate and construction activity grew at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts. Overall bank lending increased since the previous report. Credit quality and deposits increased, while credit standards were largely unchanged. Agricultural conditions remained mixed across Districts, as weather patterns varied. Overall activity in the energy sector was flat, and mining was down.
Hiring increased at a measured pace in several Districts, with some contacts noting difficulty finding qualified workers. Wage pressures remained contained overall, although several Districts reported a modest or moderate rise for selected occupations. Districts reported level prices to mild price increases; some manufacturers raised prices and some increases for input prices were noted.
Click the “source” hyperlink below to read the full report.
Fed’s Words When Economy is entering a Recession
For the December 2007 recession, here is the lead up summary words from the Beige Books:
- 28Nov2007 – “expanding”
- 16Jan2008 – “increasing moderately”
- 05Mar2008 – “growth slowed”
- 16Apr2008 – “weakened”
For the March 2001 recession which ended in November 2001, here are the Beige Book summary words:
- 17Jan2001 – “economic growth slowed”
- 07Mar2001 – “sluggish to modest economic growth”
- 02May2001 – “slow pace of economic activity”
- 13Jun2001 – “little changed or decelerating”
- 08Aug2001 – “slow growth or lateral movement”
- 19Sep2001 – “sluggish”
- 24Oct2001 – “weak economic activity”
- 28Nov2001 – “remained soft”
- 16Jan2002 – “remained weak”
Source: Federal Reserve
