Econintersect: Week 21 of 2013 ending 25 May shows same week total rail traffic declined according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). Rail for the last month has been showing very positive growth dynamics – but this was a “bad hair” week.
- Weekly data is down even ignoring coal and grain;
- Four week rolling average is improving, and better than the rolling average one year ago;
- 13 week rolling average is improving, and better than the rolling average one year ago;
- 52 week rolling average declined, but better than the rolling average one year ago;
A summary of the data:
“Five of the 10 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2012, led by petroleum and petroleum products, up 28.7 percent. Commodities showing a decrease compared with the same week last year included grain, down 21.8 percent, and metallic ores and metals, down 10.5 percent.
For the first 21 weeks of 2013, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 5,811,904 carloads, down 1.8 percent from the same point last year, and 5,039,245 intermodal units, up 4.1 percent from last year. Total U.S. traffic for the first 21 weeks of 2013 was 10,851,149 carloads and intermodal units, up 0.8 percent from last year.”
USA coal production is down 1.6% same week year-over-year, and coal over the last few months is becoming a neutral to positive dynamic on rail.
|This week Year-over-Year||-3.3%||1.4%||-1.1%|
|Ignoring coal and grain||-0.3%|
|Year Cumulative to Date||-1.8%||4.1%||0.8%|
[click on graph below to enlarge]
Current Rail Chart
For the week ended May 25, 2013:
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