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Week Ending 25 May 2013: Rail Traffic Has a Bad Week

admin by admin
5월 30, 2013
in 미분류
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Econintersect: Week 21 of 2013 ending 25 May shows same week total rail traffic declined according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). Rail for the last month has been showing very positive growth dynamics – but this was a “bad hair” week.

  • Weekly data is down even ignoring coal and grain;
  • Four week rolling average is improving, and better than the rolling average one year ago;
  • 13 week rolling average is improving, and better than the rolling average one year ago;
  • 52 week rolling average declined, but better than the rolling average one year ago;

A summary of the data:

“Five of the 10 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2012, led by petroleum and petroleum products, up 28.7 percent. Commodities showing a decrease compared with the same week last year included grain, down 21.8 percent, and metallic ores and metals, down 10.5 percent.

For the first 21 weeks of 2013, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 5,811,904 carloads, down 1.8 percent from the same point last year, and 5,039,245 intermodal units, up 4.1 percent from last year. Total U.S. traffic for the first 21 weeks of 2013 was 10,851,149 carloads and intermodal units, up 0.8 percent from last year.”

USA coal production is down 1.6% same week year-over-year, and coal over the last few months is becoming a neutral to positive dynamic on rail.

This Week
CarloadsIntermodalTotal
This week Year-over-Year-3.3%1.4%-1.1%
Ignoring coal and grain-0.3%
Year Cumulative to Date-1.8%4.1%0.8%

[click on graph below to enlarge]

Current Rail Chart

/images/z rail1.pn

From EIA.gov:

For the week ended May 25, 2013:

  • U.S. coal production totaled approximately 18.5 million short tons (mmst)
  • This production estimate is 1.9 percent lower than last week’s estimate and 1.6 percent lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2012
  • Coal production east of the Mississippi River totaled 8.0 mmst
  • Coal production west of the Mississippi River totaled 10.6 mmst
  • U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 387.1 mmst, 5.9 percent lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2012
  • Steven Hansen

    Source: AAR

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