Blue Line 4 Week Average
The market was expecting 340,000 to 345,000 vs the 354,000 reported. The more important 4 week moving average worsened, moving from 339,500 (reported last week) to 347,250.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is some seasonality which seems to have migrated into the seasonally adjusted data – specifically there is a decline in unemployment in the last third of the year (see bottom graph below). The initial claims are 7.7% lower (degrading from 8.4% last week) than they were in this week in 2012. This week shows claims are slightly elevated over the trend lines seen for most of 2012.
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending May 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 354,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 344,000. The 4-week moving average was 347,250, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 340,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending May 18, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 18 was 2,986,000, an increase of 63,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 2,923,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,986,500, a decrease of 11,500 from the preceding week’s revised average of 2,998,000.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line)
