Blue Line 4 Week Average
The market was expecting 348,000 to 350,000 vs the 340,000 reported. The more important 4 week moving average is statistically unchanged, moving from 339,250 (reported last week – but backward revision now revised last weeks number to 340,000) to 339,500.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is some seasonality which seems to have migrated into the seasonally adjusted data – specifically there is a decline in unemployment in the last third of the year (see bottom graph below). The initial claims are 8.4% lower (degrading from 9.7% last week) than they were in this week in 2012. Claims have returned to the trend lines seen for most of 2012.
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending May 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 340,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 363,000. The 4-week moving average was 339,500, a decrease of 500 from the previous week’s revised average of 340,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending May 11, unchanged from the prior week’s revised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 11 was 2,912,000, a decrease of 112,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,024,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,995,250, a decrease of 23,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,019,000.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line)
