Econintersect: The American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) trucking index rose again sharply 2.9% in January after gaining a downwardly revised 2.4% in December. Compared with January 2012, seasonally adjusted tonnage was up 6.5%. January 2013’s seasonally adjusted index is the highest on record, and has surged 9.1% in the last 3 months.
It should be noted that jobs grew in January 2013 in the trucking industry. From ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello:
“The trucking industry started 2013 with a bang, reflected in the best January tonnage report in five years,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. “While I believe that the overall economy will be sluggish in the first quarter, trucking likely benefited in January from an inventory destocking that transpired late last year, thus boosting volumes more than normal early this year as businesses replenish those lean inventories.”
Please note that the ATA revised the seasonally adjusted index back five years as part of its annual revision. For all of 2012, tonnage was up 2.3%. In 2011, the index was up 5.8%.
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Econintersect tries to validate data across data sources. It appears this month that jobs growth says the trucking industry grew 0.4% month-over-month (red line) and trucking jobs indexed to Jan 2000 = 100 is continuing to show steady improvement (blue line). Please note using BLS employment data in real time is risky, as their data is normally backward adjusted significantly. However, long term trends are showing a steady growth.
Please note that the ATA does not release an unadjusted data series where Econintersect can make an independent evaluation. Not all trucking companies are members of the ATA, and therefore it is unknown if this data is a representative sampling of the trucking industry.
source: ATA
