16 February 2013 Unemployment Claims 4 Week Average Climbs

Blue Line 4 Week Average

The market was expecting 358,000 to 365,000 vs the 362,000 reported. The more important 4 week moving average is up from 352,500. (reported last week) to 360,750.

It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is some seasonality which seems to have migrated into the seasonally adjusted data – specifically there is a decline in unemployment in the last third of the year (see bottom graph below). The initial claims are 2.1% lower (degrading from 5.1% last week) than they were in this week in 2012. Claims remain elevated from the trend lines seen for most of 2012.

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending February 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 362,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 342,000. The 4-week moving average was 360,750, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 352,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending February 9, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 9 was 3,148,000, an increase of 11,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,137,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,186,250, a decrease of 6,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,193,000.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line)

Steven Hansen