Econintersect: The American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) trucking index rose again sharply 2.8% in December after gaining a revised 3.9% in November. Compared with December 2011, seasonally adjusted tonnage was down 2.3%. Overall trucking volumes were down 2.3% for 2012.
It should be noted that jobs grew in December in the trucking industry. From ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello:
“December was better than anticipated in light of the very difficult year-over-year comparison. In December 2011, the index surged 6.4% from the previous month. Costello anticipates more sluggishness in the index this year, especially early in the year, as the economy continues to face several headwinds.”
“As paychecks shrink for all households due to higher taxes, I’m expecting a weak first quarter for tonnage and the broader economy. Since trucks account for the vast majority of deliveries in the retail supply chain, any reduction in consumer spending will have ramifications on truck tonnage levels.”
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Econintersect tries to validate data across data sources. It appears this month that jobs growth says the trucking industry grew 0.3% month-over-month (red line) and trucking jobs indexed to Jan 2000 = 100 is continuing to show steady improvement (blue line). Please note using BLS employment data in real time is risky, as their data is normally backward adjusted significantly. However, long term trends are showing a steady growth.
Please note that the ATA does not release an unadjusted data series where Econintersect can make an independent evaluation. Not all trucking companies are members of the ATA, and therefore it is unknown if this data is a representative sampling of the trucking industry.
source: ATA
