Econintersect: Week 52 of 2012 ending December 29 shows same week total rail traffic well below 2011 levels according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). In fact, the levels were lower than any week in the last two years.
- The carload portion of rail traffic showed same week traffic contracted 13.8 % (versus last week’s 0.9%).
- Excluding coal and grain (which are not an economic indicator), rail carloads contracted at -6.0% (last week +13.6%) same week year-over-year.
- Intermodal same week traffic contracted 14.0% (versus last week’s +10.2%)
- Total same week rail traffic contracted 13.3% (versus last week’s -3.0%)
USA coal production is down 8.6 % same week year-over-year (see below – data was not updated on government website from last week), and the cumulative effect on rail carloads continues to drag traffic down.
“Three of the 20 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2011, including: petroleum products, up 48.3 percent; coke, up 14.1 percent, and motor vehicles and equipment, up 6.7 percent. The groups showing a decrease in weekly traffic included: farm products, excluding grain, down 30 percent; grain, down 24.9 percent, and coal products, down 20.3 percent.”
The majority of the reason for rail year-to-date contraction is coal and grain movements – which would only effect the profitability of railroads, and not an economic indicator as coal is an alternative fuel to oil and natural gas.
| This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
| This week Year-over-Year | -13.8% | -14.0% | -13.3% |
| This week without coal and grain | -5.9% | ||
| Year Cumulative to Date | -3.1% | 3.2% | -2.4% |
[click on graph below to enlarge]
Current Rail Chart
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/images/z rail2.PNG
Total (cumulative) year-to-date traffic is contracting year-over-year.
From EIA.gov:
For the week ended December 22, 2012:
Source: AAR
