Econintersect: China has announced trade data for November and recent strength in that area was not continued. Imports were unchanged year-over-year and exports grew by only 2.9% after increasing by 11.6% in October from a year earlier. The Chinese balance of trade surplus was only $19.6 billion in November, the lowest since $18.7 billion in May. According to MarketWatch, the consensus expectation had been for a trade surplus of $27.8 billion.
Other data over the weekend was more encouraging for China. Industrial production growth up ticked to 10.1% year-over-year growth in November, compared to 9.6% for October. Retail sales also increased growth in November (14.9% y-o-y). This was an improvement from October when the number had been 14.5%.
Consumer price inflation was 2.0% in November. In October CPI had hit a post-recession low of 1.7%. The number remained well below the government’s target rate of 4%.
After having been a double digit contributor to GDP growth in China for several years, 2012 GDP growth is on track to have less than 10% coming from exports.
- National Bureau of Statistics of China (Official Website)
- China trade surplus, exports growth disappoint (V. Phani Kumar, MarketWatch, 09 December 2012)
- China trade suffers amid global fears (Simon Rabinovitch, Financial Times, 10 December 2012)
- China: PMI Returns to Expansion (GEI News, 03 December 2012)
- China Recovery gains momentum (Simon Rabinovitch, Financial Times, 09 December 2012)
- China: Prices Falling Off a Cliff, Trade Balance Unexpectedly Positive (GEI News, 10 July 2012)
- China trade surplus jumps as import growth falters (Kevin Yao, Reuters, 10 July 2012)