Econintersect: Week 47 of 2012 ending 24 November shows same week total rail traffic was below 2011 levels according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR).
- The carload portion of rail traffic showed same week traffic contracted 4.6% (versus last week’s -4.3%).
- Excluding coal and grain (which are not an economic indicator), rail carloads expanded at 5.4% (last week +3.1%) same week year-over-year.
- Intermodal same week traffic expanded 1.9% (versus last week’s +2.4%)
- Total same week traffic rail traffic contracted 3.1% (versus last week’s -3.0%)
USA coal production is down 9.7% same week year-over-year (see below), and the cumulative effect on rail carloads continues to drag traffic down.
“Twelve of the 20 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2011, with petroleum products, up 63.6 percent; farm products excluding grain, up 24.8 percent, and lumber and wood products, up 17.1 percent. The groups showing a decrease in weekly traffic included metallic ores, down 24.7 percent; grain, down 16.7 percent, and coal, down 12.2 percent.”
The majority of the reason for rail year-to-date contraction is coal and grain movements – which would only effect the profitability of railroads, and not an economic indicator as coal is an alternative fuel to oil and natural gas.
|This week Year-over-Year||-4.6%||1.9%||-3.6%|
|This week without coal and grain||5.4%|
|Year Cumulative to Date||-3.1%||3.4%||-2.3%|
Current Rail Chart
Total (cumulative) year-to-date traffic is contracting year-over-year.
For the week ended November 24, 2012: