Econintersect: Week 44 of 2012 ending 03 November shows same week total rail traffic was below 2011 levels according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR).
- The carload portion of rail traffic showed same week traffic contracted 6.8% (versus last week’s -7.0%).
- Excluding coal and grain (which are not an economic indicator), rail carloads expanded at 2.5% (last week +2.5%) same week year-over-year.
- Intermodal same week traffic contracted 6.2% (versus last week’s +3.9%)
- Total same week traffic rail traffic contracted 3.0% (versus last week’s -2.9%)
USA coal production is down 10.8% same week year-over-year (see below).
“AAR today also reported declines in rail traffic for the week ending Nov. 3, 2012, which included impacts from Hurricane Sandy. Last week U.S. railroads originated 278,230 carloads, down 6.8 percent compared with the same week last year, while intermodal volume for the week totaled 224,467 trailers and containers, down 6.2 percent compared with the same week last year.
Ten of the 20 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2011, with petroleum products, up 61.5 percent; farm products excluding grain, up 46.4 percent, and lumber and wood products, up 24 percent. The groups showing a decrease in weekly traffic included iron and steel scrap, down 25.8 percent; metallic ores, down 22.9, and nonmetallic minerals, down 22.5 percent.”
A good background article on the switch of the power generating plants from coal to natural gas was published 30May2012 in the NYT. The week before GEI News had reported on the decline in coal usage over the past year.
The majority of the reason for rail year-to-date contraction is coal and grain movements – which would only effect the profitability of railroads, and not an economic indicator as coal is an alternative fuel to oil and natural gas.
| This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
| This week Year-over-Year | -6.8% | -6.2% | -6.3% |
| This week without coal and grain | 2.2% | ||
| Year Cumulative to Date | -3.0% | 3.5% | -2.1% |
Current Rail Chart
Total (cumulative) year-to-date traffic is contracting year-over-year.
From EIA.gov:
For the week ended November 03, 2012:
Source: AAR
