Blue Line 4 Week Average
The market was expecting 370,000 vs the 355,000 reported. The more important 4 week moving average is slightly up to 370,500.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the gap between years on the 4 week moving average. There is some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data – specifically there is a decline in unemployment in the last third of the year (see graph below). The year-over-year change from the same week last year is -8.1% – showing the unemployment decline trend lines seen so far this year are unchanged.
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending November 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 355,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 363,000. The 4-week moving average was 370,500, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 367,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending October 27, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 27 was 3,127,000, a decrease of 135,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,262,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,227,750, a decrease of 38,500 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,266,250.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2010 (blue line), 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line)
