27October2012 Unemployment Claims: Four Week Average Down Slightly

Blue Line 4 Week Average

The market was expecting 375,000 vs the 363,000 reported. The more important 4 week moving average is slightly down to 367,250.

It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the gap between years on the 4 week moving average. There is some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data – specifically there is a decline in unemployment in the last third of the year (see graph below). The year-over-year change from the same week last year is -8.1% – showing the unemployment decline trend lines seen so far this year are unchanged.

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending October 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 363,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 372,000. The 4-week moving average was 367,250, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 368,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending October 20, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 20 was 3,263,000, an increase of 4,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,259,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,266,500, a decrease of 6,250 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,272,750.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2010 (blue line), 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line)

Steven Hansen