Current ECRI WLI Growth Index
AThe Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 124.9 in the week ended Sept 7 from an upwardly revised 124.1 the previous week. That was originally reported as 123.7. The index’s annualized growth rate also rose, to its highest level since August 2011, at 2.1 percent from 1.4 percent a week earlier.
ECRI is still insisting a recession is here (a 07Sep2012 post on their website). ECRI first stated in September 2011 a recession was coming . The size and depth is unknown. The ECRI WLI growth index value improved this week enjoying its third week in positive territory. The index is indicating the economy six month from today will be slightly better than it is today.
Thursday, Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, appeared on Bloomberg TV to reaffirm the recession is here. Lakshman continues to claim the economic elements the NBER uses to call a recession have rolled over, which will only be true if the current data is backwardly revised. Please see Econintersect’s economic forecast to see their current situation.