Current ECRI WLI Growth Index
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged up to 123.3 in the week ended August 17 from a revised 123.0 the prior week. That was originally reported as 122.8. The index’s annualized growth rate rose to -0.1 percent from the prior week’s -0.4 percent, which was originally reported as -0.6.
ECRI stated in September 2011 a recession was coming, and now says a recession is already underway. The size and depth is unknown. A positive result is this pronouncement has caused much debate in economic cyberspace.
The ECRI WLI index value remains in negative territory – but this week very close to zero. The index is indicating the economy six month from today will be imperceptibly worse than it is today. As shown on the graph above, this is not the first time since the end of the Great Recession that the WLI has been in negative territory, however the improvement from the troughs has been growing less good.