Predictions including inflation and unemployment follow.
Real GDP (%) | Unemployment Rate (%) | Payrolls (000s/month) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Previous | New | Previous | New | Previous | New | |
| Quarterly data | ||||||
| 2012:Q3 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 170.0 | 125.0 |
| 2012:Q4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 172.6 | 135.3 |
| 2013:Q1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 170.3 | 151.7 |
| 2013:Q2 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 185.8 | 139.7 |
| 2013:Q3 | N.A. | 2.5 | N.A. | 7.8 | N.A. | 149.0 |
| Annual data (projections are based on annual-average levels) | ||||||
| 2012 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 171.9 | 154.6 |
| 2013 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 175.7 | 143.2 |
| 2014 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 7.2 | 7.3 | N.A. | N.A. |
| 2015 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 7.0 | N.A. | N.A. |
Higher Risk of a Negative Quarter
The forecasters have revised upward the chance of a contraction in real GDP in any of the next four quarters. For the current quarter, they predict a 13.8 percent chance of negative growth, up from 12.2 percent in the survey of three months ago. As the table below shows, the panelists have also made upward revisions to their forecasts for the following three quarters.
Quarterly data | Previous | New |
|---|---|---|
| 2012: Q3 | 12.2 | 13.8 |
| 2012: Q4 | 14.5 | 17.0 |
| 2013: Q1 | 17.3 | 21.2 |
| 2013: Q2 | 17.8 | 21.0 |
| 2013: Q3 | N.A. | 19.1 |
Revisions to the projections for long-term inflation depend on the measure. Over the next 10 years, 2012 to 2021, the forecasters expect headline CPI inflation to average 2.35 percent at an annual rate, lower than the estimate of 2.48 percent from the survey of three months ago. The corresponding estimate for 10-year annual-average headline PCE inflation remained unchanged at 2.20 percent.
Headline CPI | Core CPI | Headline PCE | Core PCE | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Previous | Current | Previous | Current | Previous | Current | Previous | Current | |
| Quarterly | ||||||||
| 2012:Q3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| 2012:Q4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 2013:Q1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| 2013:Q2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| 2013:Q3 | N.A. | 2.2 | N.A. | 2.1 | N.A. | 2.1 | N.A. | 2.0 |
| Q4/Q4 Annual Averages | ||||||||
| 2012 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| 2013 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| 2014 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Long-Term Annual Averages | ||||||||
| 2012-2016 | 2.35 | 2.20 | N.A. | N.A. | 2.04 | 2.00 | N.A. | N.A. |
| 2012-2021 | 2.48 | 2.35 | N.A. | N.A. | 2.20 | 2.20 | N.A. | N.A. |
source: read the full report
