Current ECRI WLI Growth Index
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.5 in the week ended August 3 from 122.1 the previous week. That was originally reported as 122.2. The index’s annualized growth rate held steady at minus 1.3 percent from a week earlier.
ECRI stated in September 2011 a recession was coming, and now says a recession is already underway. The size and depth is unknown. A positive result is this pronouncement has caused much debate in economic cyberspace.
The ECRI WLI index value remains in negative territory – but this week is unchanged. The index is indicating the economy six month from today will be slightly worse than it is today. As shown on the graph above, this is not the first time since the end of the Great Recession that the WLI has been in negative territory, however the improvement from the troughs has been growing less good.