Econintersect: The consolidated economic report from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts (Beige Book) says economic activity “expanded at a moderate pace during the reporting period from early April to late May”. The previous report said economic activity “continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace from mid-February through late March”
This appears to mean that the economy strengthen in this current period. Please see the end of this post for words the Federal Reserve uses when the economy is entering a recession.
All Federal Reserve districts used positive words to describe their respective economies.
The summary for the 06 June 2012 release reads as follows:
……. Activity in the New York, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts was characterized as growing at a moderate pace, while the Richmond, St. Louis, and Minneapolis Districts noted modest growth. Boston reported steady growth, and the Philadelphia District indicated that the pace of expansion had slowed slightly since the previous Beige Book.
Manufacturing continued to expand in most Districts.
Consumer spending was unchanged or up modestly.
New vehicle sales remained strong and inventories of some popular models were tight.
Sales of used automobiles held steady.
Travel and tourism expanded, boosted by both the business and leisure segments.
Demand for nonfinancial services was generally stable to slightly higher since the last report, and several Districts noted strong growth in information technology services.
Conditions in residential and commercial real estate improved.
Construction picked up in many areas of the country. Lenders in most Districts noted an improvement in loan demand and credit conditions.
Agricultural conditions generally improved, and spring planting was well ahead of its normal pace in most reporting Districts.
Energy production and exploration continued to expand, except for coal producers who noted a slight slowing in activity.
Wage pressures overall were modest. Hiring was steady or increased slightly, and contacts in a number of Districts reported difficulties in finding qualified workers, particularly those with specialized skills.
Price inflation remained modest across Districts, and overall cost pressures eased as the price of energy inputs declined. Economic outlooks remain positive, but contacts were slightly more guarded in their optimism.
Click the “source” hyperlink below the read the full 49 page report.
Fed’s Words When Economy is entering a Recession
For the December 2007 recession, here is the lead up summary words from the Beige Books:
- 28Nov2007 – “expanding”
- 16Jan2008 – “increasing moderately”
- 05Mar2008 – “growth slowed”
- 16Apr2008 – “weakened”
For the March 2001 recession which ended in November 2001, here are the Beige Book summary words:
- 17Jan2001 – “economic growth slowed”
- 07Mar2001 – “sluggish to modest economic growth”
- 02May2001 – “slow pace of economic activity”
- 13Jun2001 – “little changed or decelerating”
- 08Aug2001 – “slow growth or lateral movement”
- 19Sep2001 – “sluggish”
- 24Oct2001 – “weak economic activity”
- 28Nov2001 – “remained soft”
- 16Jan2002 – “remained weak”
Source: Federal Reserve
