Econintersect: The consolidated economic report from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts (Beige Book) says economic activity was expanding at a “modest to moderate pace during the reporting period of late November through the end of December”. These are good anti-recession words – please see the end of this post for words the Federal Reserve uses when the economy is entering a recession. The previous Beige Book said “economic activity “increased at a slow to moderate pace”.
It was clear in reading this report that the Federal Reserve believes the economy has expanded.
The summary for the 11 January 2012 release reads as follows:
Consumer spending picked up in most Districts, reflecting significant gains in holiday retail sales compared with last year’s season, and activity in the travel and tourism sector expanded in most areas. Demand strengthened further for nonfinancial services, including professional and transportation services. Manufacturing activity generally continued to expand, although the pace of growth has slowed for selected subsectors such as technology products. Agricultural producers and extractors of natural resources reported generally robust conditions. Activity stayed sluggish in residential real estate markets, and conditions in commercial real estate markets remained somewhat soft overall but showed signs of ongoing improvement in several Districts. Reports from financial institutions generally indicated a slight uptick in loan demand by businesses, along with improvements in overall credit quality.
Upward price pressures and price increases remained quite limited for most categories of final goods and services, as the effects of prior increases in the costs of selected inputs have eased. Upward wage pressures were modest overall, although a few Districts noted substantial compensation increases for workers with specialized skills in selected sectors and regions.
Fed’s Words When Economy is entering a Recession
For the December 2007 recession, here is the lead up summary words from the Beige Books:
- 28Nov2007 – “expanding”
- 16Jan2008 – “increasing moderately”
- 05Mar2008 – “growth slowed”
- 16Apr2008 – “weakened”
For the March 2001 recession which ended in November 2001, here are the Beige Book summary words:
- 17Jan2001 – “economic growth slowed”
- 07Mar2001 – “sluggish to modest economic growth”
- 02May2001 – “slow pace of economic activity”
- 13Jun2001 – “little changed or decelerating”
- 08Aug2001 – “slow growth or lateral movement”
- 19Sep2001 – “sluggish”
- 24Oct2001 – “weak economic activity”
- 28Nov2001 – “remained soft”
- 16Jan2002 – “remained weak”
Click on the ” Federal Reserve” hyperlink below for a view of the entire report.
Source: Federal Reserve
