Econintersect: Weekly rail traffic growth year-over-year remains solid – not only outperforming other weak segments of the economy, but also trending up. Rail traffic ends up being a leading indicator as it moves goods that will enter the economy weeks and months from now.
The latest data for week 50 of 2011 ending 17 December 2011, rail traffic grew 9.1% over the same week one year ago according to data provided by Railfax.
This is a huge jump in growth, with strength in most commodities transported. However, the lion’s share of the growth is attributable to coal transport.
Rail performance up to June 2011 was growing 3% to 4%. From June through September 2011, the growth rate declined. In August and September, weekly rail traffic contracted 4 times year-over-year – but since October has again turned moderately positive.
This week the 4 week average shows year-over-year growth at 4.8%, up massively from 3.0% last week. Rail traffic usually contracts through the end of the year. Econintersect believes low growth year-over-year is a sign of a weak economy. The current strengthening growth is definitely not indicating a weakening economy.
Total US Rail Traffic
| Major Commodity Groups | Total | Grain | Chemicals | Food | Forest | Metals | Coal | Autos | Intermodal |
| Current Week | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 9.1% | (7.2%) | 4.8% | (0.9%) | 8.1% | 16.6% | 15.9% | 20.1% | 6.0% |
| Vs. 2009 | 11.7% | (2.8%) | 13.8% | (2.7%) | 14.4% | 23.3% | 12.8% | (0.3%) | 11.2% |
| 4 Week Rolling Avg. | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 4.8% | (8.1%) | 2.2% | (1.6%) | 4.2% | 10.9% | 4.8% | 22.7% | 4.0% |
| Vs. 2009 | 12.9% | (8.0%) | 11.7% | (2.8%) | 10.4% | 38.2% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 15.4% |
| Quarter to Date | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 3.4% | (11.9%) | 3.8% | (2.6%) | 3.3% | 8.6% | 2.3% | 16.2% | 3.8% |
| Vs. 2009 | 12.5% | (7.9%) | 12.1% | (3.4%) | 8.0% | 41.6% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 16.5% |
| Year to Date | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 3.4% | (2.5%) | 4.6% | (2.8%) | 3.5% | 8.6% | 0.2% | 9.5% | 5.1% |
| Vs. 2009 | 13.7% | 8.0% | 14.6% | (0.5%) | 7.5% | 50.2% | 0.9% | 28.6% | 19.9% |
4 week rolling average:
Source: Railfax
