CBO: TARP Cost Estimate Increased to $34 Billion

Econintersect:  Remember the suggestions when TARP was being implemented that the government might actually make money on the program.  That seems almost certainly not to be the final outcome as estimates of loss are growing.  In March the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) estimated the government losses (also referred to as subsidy) would amount to $19 billion.  The latest report (December 16) raises the estimate to $34 billion.  The reason for the loss centers on actions taken to bail out AIG, aid to the automotive industry and grants for avoiding foreclosures.  The portion of the funds used for bank rescues did actually make money, according to the CBO.  See Econintersect table later.

The CBO report was developed from the latest report (November 8) from the OMB (Office of Management of the Budget).  The CBO estimate of cost is lower than that of the OMB, which came in at $53 billion.  The CBO states that their lower estimate results from projection of “lower cost for the Treasury’s housing programs under the TARP” than was made by the OMB.  The amount of money made on TARP funds used for banks is inferred by taking the difference between the costs specified ($59 billion) and the total costs estimated for the program.

Sources:     CBO March 2011 Report on TARP, OMB November 8, 2011 Report on EESA and CBO December 2011 Report on TARP