Econintersect: Weekly rail traffic growth was not as good this week – but the year-over-year growth is still better than GDP and most sectors of the economy. Rail traffic ends up being a leading indicator as it moves goods that will enter the economy weeks and months from now.
The latest data for week 45 of 2011 ending 12 November 2011, rail traffic grew 2.6% over the same week one year ago according to data provided by Railfax.Rail performance up to June 2011 was growing 3% to 4%. From June through September, growth declined year to date for 2011 was in an overall downtrend which began in June when growth dropped below 3% to 4% year-over-year improvement on the four week trend line. In August and September, weekly rail traffic contracted 4 times year-over-year – but since October has again turned moderately positive.
In October, the short term trend has been improving and has now entered its old trend of the first half of 2011. This week the 4 week average shows year-over-year growth at 3.1%, up from 2.8% last week. Econintersect believes low growth year-over-year is an economic warning that a recession is possible. But if growth starts to pick up, the threat of recession will begin to recede.
Total US Rail Traffic
Major Commodity Groups | Total | Grain | Chemicals | Food | Forest | Metals | Coal | Autos | Intermodal |
Current Week | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 2.6% | (17.9%) | 2.3% | (7.0%) | 4.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 13.2% | 5.2% |
Vs. 2009 | 11.3% | (12.8%) | 7.7% | (4.5%) | 8.5% | 45.5% | 4.5% | (3.3%) | 17.7% |
4 Week Rolling Avg. | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 3.1% | (15.2%) | 3.8% | (4.0%) | 2.8% | 8.6% | 2.3% | 13.5% | 4.4% |
Vs. 2009 | 12.8% | (10.6%) | 11.7% | (3.8%) | 6.8% | 45.0% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 17.8% |
Quarter to Date | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 2.7% | (14.2%) | 4.7% | (3.6%) | 2.9% | 8.0% | 1.4% | 12.4% | 3.8% |
Vs. 2009 | 13.0% | (7.6%) | 12.8% | (4.0%) | 7.1% | 45.9% | 5.8% | 12.3% | 17.6% |
Year to Date | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 3.3% | (1.8%) | 4.8% | (2.9%) | 3.4% | 8.5% | (0.2%) | 8.2% | 5.2% |
Vs. 2009 | 13.9% | 10.2% | 15.0% | (0.3%) | 7.4% | 51.8% | 0.2% | 32.0% | 20.5% |
4 week rolling average:
source: Railfax