Econintersect: Weekly rail traffic growth continues to be higher than the 4 week rolling average and the year-to-date growth – and belies concerns the economy is currently slipping into a recession. Rail traffic ends up being a leading indicator as it moves goods that will enter the economy weeks and months from now.
Weekly rail traffic has shown contraction year-over-year on four occasions since August. The latest data for week 44 of 2011 ending 05 November 2011, rail traffic grew 3.4% over the same week one year ago according to data provided by Railfax.Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been in an overall downtrend since June when the trend line dropped below 3% to 4% year-over-year improvement in the four week trend line. In October, the short term trend has been improving but still below its old trend of the first half of 2011. This week the 4 week average shows year-over-year growth at 2.8%, up from 2.5% last week. Econintersect believes low growth year-over-year is an economic warning that a recession is possible. But if growth starts to pick up, the threat of recession will begin to recede.
Total US Rail Traffic
| Major Commodity Groups | Total | Grain | Chemicals | Food | Forest | Metals | Coal | Autos | Intermodal |
| Current Week | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 3.4% | (11.7%) | 3.4% | (0.2%) | 4.3% | 16.6% | 1.8% | 17.2% | 3.5% |
| Vs. 2009 | 11.8% | (17.3%) | 14.0% | (0.2%) | 8.5% | 46.2% | 6.3% | 10.6% | 15.6% |
| 4 Week Rolling Avg. | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 2.8% | (14.2%) | 4.2% | (2.5%) | 1.5% | 11.8% | 1.2% | 12.5% | 3.8% |
| Vs. 2009 | 13.4% | (6.9%) | 13.2% | (3.2%) | 5.8% | 45.9% | 6.1% | 16.0% | 18.0% |
| Quarter to Date | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 2.7% | (13.4%) | 5.2% | (2.9%) | 2.5% | 9.4% | 1.3% | 12.2% | 3.5% |
| Vs. 2009 | 13.3% | (6.5%) | 13.9% | (3.9%) | 6.8% | 46.0% | 6.1% | 15.8% | 17.6% |
| Year to Date | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 3.3% | (1.3%) | 4.9% | (2.8%) | 3.4% | 8.6% | (0.3%) | 8.1% | 5.2% |
| Vs. 2009 | 13.9% | 10.8% | 15.1% | (0.2%) | 7.3% | 52.0% | 0.1% | 33.1% | 20.5% |
4 week rolling average:
source: Railfax
