Chicago Fed Manufacturing Index a Little Less Good in October 2011

Econintersect: The Chicago Purchasing Managers index was less good in November 2011 but showed business expansion for the 25th consecutive month.  The press release noted this month that the 3 month moving average had contracted for the seventh consecutive month.

Econintersect notes that new orders also was less good – but far from contraction with 37% of the respondents saying orders were increasing, while 44% saying that new orders were about the same.

BUSINESS ACTIVITY:

• • Employment is highest in 6 months
  • New Orders erased half of September’s gain
  • Order Backlogs recovered from a 2 month contraction

26% of survey Participants thought order backlog was increasing, and 26% said backlog was decreasing (the rest saying no change).

This is a survey – and Econintersect has warned that surveys are opinion, and often are not supported by hard data. Further they are usually incorrect at economic turning points.

There is evidence of a weakening economy – but not a recessionary economy – in the results of this survey.

source: Chicago PMI