Econintersect: The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) decreased slightly in September, but is up 4.4% from a year ago. Says Gad Levanon, Associate Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board:
“Despite the somewhat better than expected employment numbers released on Friday, the decline in the Employment Trends Index in September suggests that weak job growth is likely to continue for the rest of 2011. Even as the economy remains slow going into the next year, we do not expect a major acceleration in layoffs, because employers have kept their workforce quite lean since the 2008/09 recession.”
This month’s weakness in the ETI was driven by negative contributions from six out of the eight components. The eight components are:
- Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board
Consumer Confidence Survey®)
- Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
- Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of
Independent Business Research Foundation)
- Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS)
- Job Openings (BLS)
- Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
- Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
The weakening indicators include The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey® “Jobs Hard to Get,” Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons, Industrial Production, and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales.
Econintersect’s jobs index is also forecasting a weak jobs market for the rest of the year (analysis here).
Source: The Conference Board