Econintersect: Rail counts improvements have now pushed US railroad traffic away from contraction – and now is in positive year-over-year growth across most metrics.
Weekly rail traffic has shown contraction year-over-year on four occasions since August. In week 39 of 2011 ending 01 October 2011, rail traffic grew 4.6% over the same week one year ago according to rail data provided by Railfax.
Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been in an overall downtrend. The four week trendline was holding steady between 3% to 4% year-over-year improvement until the last weeks in June. This week the 4 week average shows year-over-year growth at 1.6% from a negative 0.4% two weeks ago (no report was issued last week). Econintersect believes low growth over 2010 is an economic warning that a recession is possible.
Total US Rail Traffic
| Major Commodity Groups | Total | Grain | Chemicals | Food | Forest | Metals | Coal | Autos | Intermodal |
| Current Week | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 4.6% | (17.2%) | 5.3% | 0.1% | 3.7% | 11.0% | 4.9% | 12.2% | 4.4% |
| Vs. 2009 | 16.6% | (7.9%) | 13.2% | 2.8% | 14.7% | 45.2% | 10.9% | 20.5% | 21.6% |
| 4 Week Rolling Avg. | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 1.6% | (18.1%) | 4.5% | (5.5%) | 2.9% | 6.5% | 1.2% | 8.2% | 2.3% |
| Vs. 2009 | 13.6% | (6.3%) | 12.9% | (0.3%) | 9.9% | 35.2% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 19.9% |
| Quarter to Date | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 0.5% | (14.0%) | 4.0% | (2.5%) | 3.1% | 9.4% | (2.5%) | 8.2% | 1.2% |
| Vs. 2009 | 11.6% | (6.3%) | 10.5% | (0.6%) | 7.2% | 38.3% | (0.5%) | 17.1% | 19.5% |
| Year to Date | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 3.4% | 0.5% | 4.9% | (2.8%) | 3.5% | 8.5% | (0.5%) | 7.5% | 5.4% |
| Vs. 2009 | 14.0% | 13.6% | 15.3% | 0.4% | 7.4% | 52.8% | (0.6%) | 36.2% | 21.0% |
source: Railfax
