Econintersect: Rail counts continue to flirt with contraction, and this week’s contraction has brought the quarter to date volumes to no growth year-over-year.
Weekly rail traffic has contracted four times year-over-year since August. In week 37 of 2011 ending 17 September 2011, there was a 0.3% decline over the same week one year ago according to rail data provided by Railfax.
Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been in an overall downtrend. The four week trendline was holding steady between 3% to 4% year-over-year improvement until the last weeks in June. This week the 4 week average is negative at a 0.4% decline year-over-year. Econintersect believes low growth over 2010 is an economic warning that a recession is possible.
Total US Rail Traffic
| Major Commodity Groups | Total | Grain | Chemicals | Food | Forest | Metals | Coal | Autos | Intermodal |
| Current Week | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | (0.3%) | (16.6%) | 4.5% | (5.9%) | 4.0% | 4.2% | (2.0%) | 5.6% | 0.9% |
| Vs. 2009 | 11.2% | (8.7%) | 10.3% | (1.1%) | 8.3% | 30.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 18.1% |
| 4 Week Rolling Avg. | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | (0.4%) | (18.3%) | 2.5% | (4.1%) | 3.5% | 6.6% | (1.6%) | 9.1% | (0.1%) |
| Vs. 2009 | 10.6% | (7.5%) | 9.1% | 0.3% | 7.6% | 34.9% | 1.3% | 9.8% | 17.4% |
| Quarter to Date | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 0.0% | (13.0%) | 3.7% | (2.3%) | 3.0% | 9.3% | (3.5%) | 7.8% | 0.8% |
| Vs. 2009 | 10.8% | (6.2%) | 9.7% | (0.8%) | 6.2% | 38.3% | (2.3%) | 17.6% | 19.2% |
| Year to Date | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 3.4% | 1.7% | 4.8% | (2.8%) | 3.5% | 8.5% | (0.7%) | 7.3% | 5.5% |
| Vs. 2009 | 13.9% | 14.8% | 15.3% | 0.4% | 7.1% | 53.8% | (1.2%) | 37.9% | 20.9% |
source: Railfax
