Econintersect: Rail traffic has contracted for the second time in August in week 34 of 2011 ending 27 August 2011 according to rail data provided by Railfax.
Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been in an overall downtrend. The four week trendline was holding steady between 3% to 4% year-over-year improvement until the last weeks in June. Last week it expanded 1.0% compared to the same week last year. This week: -0.7%. Econintersect believes low growth over 2010 remains an economic warning that a recession is possible.
The major weakness comes from coal transport which the 4 week average is now a negative 1.7% year-over-year. Coal is a major portion of rail car loadings. Coal is a commodity which can be substituted for other sources of energy – and the lower counts are not necessarily indicative of a contracting economy. On the other hand, intermodal transport is a good economic indicator which is still marginally positive to neutral: the 4 week average declined to +0.8%, but was a negative 0.5% YoY this week.
Year-to-date gains have fallen from 3.9% to 3.7%.
Total US Rail Traffic
| Major Commodity Groups | Total | Grain | Chemicals | Food | Forest | Metals | Coal | Autos | Intermodal |
| Current Week | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | (0.7%) | (17.1%) | 2.6% | (2.7%) | 3.7% | 9.8% | (3.1%) | 13.2% | (0.5%) |
| Vs. 2009 | 10.0% | (7.6%) | 5.2% | 0.2% | 6.6% | 39.8% | (1.2%) | 29.8% | 16.5% |
| 4 Week Rolling Avg. | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 0.3% | (15.7%) | 3.4% | (1.0%) | 2.1% | 9.6% | (1.7%) | 8.4% | 0.8% |
| Vs. 2009 | 11.9% | (10.3%) | 8.3% | 1.8% | 6.1% | 38.8% | (0.6%) | 25.3% | 20.6% |
| Quarter to Date | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 0.2% | (10.7%) | 4.2% | (1.4%) | 2.9% | 10.8% | (4.4%) | 7.8% | 1.0% |
| Vs. 2009 | 10.8% | (5.7%) | 9.5% | (1.2%) | 5.6% | 40.3% | (4.0%) | 24.5% | 19.8% |
| Year to Date | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.1% | (2.7%) | 3.5% | 8.8% | (0.6%) | 7.3% | 6.1% |
| Vs. 2009 | 14.2% | 16.9% | 15.8% | 0.4% | 7.0% | 56.0% | (1.5%) | 42.3% | 21.2% |
source: Railfax
