Econintersect: Rail traffic expanded in week 33 of 2011 ending 20 August 2011 according to rail data provided by Railfax. Rail traffic contracted last week year-over-year.
Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been in an overall downtrend. The four week trendline until the last weeks in June was holding steady between 3% to 4% year-over-year improvement – this week expanded in relation to the same week last year from -0.3% last week to 1.0%. Econintersect believes low growth over 2011 remains an economic warning.
The major weakness comes from coal transport which the 4 week average is now off 2.7% year-over-year currently – but is a major portion of rail car loadings. Coal is a commodity which can be substituted for other sources of energy – and the lower counts are not necessarily indicative of a contracting economy. However, intermodal transport is a good economic indicator – and the 4 week average remained unchanged at 1.7%.
Year-to-date gains have fallen from 4.0% to 3.9%.
Total US Rail Traffic
| Major Commodity Groups | Total | Grain | Chemicals | Food | Forest | Metals | Coal | Autos | Intermodal |
| Current Week | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 1.0% | (21.0%) | 5.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 10.6% | 0.5% | 6.8% | 1.0% |
| Vs. 2009 | 14.0% | (11.8%) | 10.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 38.9% | 1.9% | 30.8% | 23.5% |
| 4 Week Rolling Avg. | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 0.5% | (13.6%) | 4.0% | (0.9%) | 2.3% | 9.8% | (2.7%) | 7.5% | 1.7% |
| Vs. 2009 | 12.9% | (9.2%) | 10.0% | 2.1% | 7.1% | 38.4% | (0.8%) | 26.4% | 22.6% |
| Quarter to Date | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 0.3% | (9.7%) | 4.4% | (1.3%) | 2.7% | 11.0% | (4.6%) | 6.9% | 1.3% |
| Vs. 2009 | 10.9% | (5.5%) | 10.1% | (1.4%) | 5.5% | 40.3% | (4.4%) | 23.6% | 20.2% |
| Year to Date | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | (2.6%) | 3.5% | 8.7% | (0.6%) | 7.1% | 6.3% |
| Vs. 2009 | 14.3% | 17.7% | 16.1% | 0.4% | 7.1% | 56.6% | (1.5%) | 42.8% | 21.4% |
source: Railfax
