Econintersect: Rail traffic contracted year-over-year in week 32 of 2011 ending 13 August 2011 according to rail data provided by Railfax.
Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been in an overall downtrend. The four week trendline until the last weeks in June was holding steady between 3% to 4% year-over-year improvement – this week contracted in relation to the same week last year from 0.7% last week to -0.3%. Econintersect believes this is a warning signal of economic weakness as material movement in the USA is now falling below 2010 levels.
The major weakness comes from coal transport which the 4 week average is now off 5.6% year-over-year currently – but is a major portion of rail car loadings. Coal is a commodity which can be substituted for other sources of energy – and the lower counts are not necessarily indicative of a contracting economy. However, intermodal transport is a good economic indicator – and the 4 week average declined from 1.9% to 1.7%.
Year-to-date gains have fallen from 4.1% to 4.0%.
Total US Rail Traffic
| Major Commodity Groups | Total | Grain | Chemicals | Food | Forest | Metals | Coal | Autos | Intermodal |
| Current Week | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | (0.3%) | (2.1%) | 3.9% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 12.1% | (5.6%) | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| Vs. 2009 | 12.3% | (9.7%) | 11.1% | 2.9% | 7.5% | 39.5% | (1.2%) | 15.7% | 21.8% |
| 4 Week Rolling Avg. | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 0.5% | (8.3%) | 3.2% | (2.0%) | 2.6% | 11.4% | (4.0%) | 7.3% | 1.7% |
| Vs. 2009 | 12.4% | (4.6%) | 10.6% | 0.7% | 7.5% | 38.9% | (2.6%) | 27.2% | 21.7% |
| Quarter to Date | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 0.1% | (7.7%) | 4.2% | (1.8%) | 3.1% | 11.1% | (5.5%) | 6.9% | 1.3% |
| Vs. 2009 | 10.4% | (4.4%) | 10.1% | (2.2%) | 5.6% | 40.6% | (5.5%) | 22.2% | 19.7% |
| Year to Date | |||||||||
| Vs. 2010 | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | (2.8%) | 3.6% | 8.7% | (0.6%) | 7.1% | 6.5% |
| Vs. 2009 | 14.3% | 18.7% | 16.3% | 0.3% | 7.1% | 57.3% | (1.6%) | 43.2% | 21.3% |
source: Railfax
