July 2011 Conference Board Employment Trends Index Down

Econintersect:  The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) decreased slightly in July, but  is up 4% from a year ago.  Says Gad Levanon, Associate Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board:

“The Employment Trends Index declined in three of the past four months, and is signaling employment growth of less than 100,000 per month through the end of 2011. Despite weak employment growth in recent months, GDP has been growing even slower in the first half of 2011. There is simply not enough growth in production to warrant stronger hiring.”

This month’s decrease in the ETI was driven by negative contributions from three out of the eight components. The eight components are:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board
  Consumer Confidence Survey®)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of
  Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

The weakening indicators include The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey® “Jobs Hard to Get,” Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now and Job Openings, which is a forecasted component.

Econintersect’s jobs index is also forecasting a weak jobs market for the rest of the year (analysis here).

Source: The Conference Board