Econintersect: Rail traffic is in danger of contracting year-over-year in week 28 of 2011 ending 16 July 2011 according to Railfax.
Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been weakening. The four week trendline until the last weeks in June was holding steady between 3% to 4% year-over-year improvement – has now fallen to 0.3%. Econintersect believes this is a warning signal of economic weakness as material movement in the USA is in danger of falling below 2010 levels.
The major weakness comes from coal transport which is off over 6% year-over-year currently – but is a major portion of rail car loadings. Coal is a commodity which can be substituted for other sources of energy – and the lower counts are not necessarily indicative of a contracting economy. However, intermodal transport is a good economic indicator – and is only up 1.2% year-over-year this week.
Year-to-date gains have fallen to 4.5%.
Total US Rail Traffic
Major Commodity Groups | Total | Grain | Chemicals | Food | Forest | Metals | Coal | Autos | Intermodal |
Current Week | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 0.4% | (2.7%) | 5.8% | (0.1%) | 1.7% | 9.2% | (6.7%) | 17.7% | 1.2% |
Vs. 2009 | 12.1% | 2.4% | 15.7% | (3.7%) | 3.7% | 51.3% | (6.9%) | 11.4% | 21.5% |
4 Week Rolling Avg. | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 0.3% | 1.2% | 4.1% | 0.3% | 3.0% | 8.6% | (6.7%) | 5.7% | 1.8% |
Vs. 2009 | 13.8% | 7.9% | 13.1% | (4.3%) | 5.0% | 62.7% | (6.8%) | 49.7% | 23.5% |
Quarter to Date | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | (0.7%) | (6.3%) | 6.3% | (1.2%) | 4.2% | 10.3% | (8.8%) | 5.7% | 0.6% |
Vs. 2009 | 6.1% | (4.0%) | 9.0% | (7.7%) | 1.8% | 44.5% | (11.7%) | 8.5% | 15.4% |
Year to Date | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 4.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | (2.9%) | 3.8% | 8.2% | (0.1%) | 7.0% | 7.2% |
Vs. 2009 | 14.6% | 22.2% | 17.2% | 0.2% | 7.1% | 60.7% | (1.5%) | 45.8% | 21.3% |
source: Railfax