Econintersect: Rail traffic YoY remains below trend year-over-year in week 26 of 2011 ending 02 July 2011 according to Railfax.
Econintersect uses the transport sector to gauge economic activity – and trucking numbers also are weak being up only 2.7% year-over-year in May (news here).
Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been weakening. The four week trendline which was holding steady between 3% to 4% YoY improvement fell to 2.9% in the previous reporting period – and now has fallen to 2.3%. Econintersect believes this is a warning signal of economic weakness as material movement in the USA is in danger of falling below 2010 levels. This would be an indication a recession was underway.
Last week rail traffic was up 1.3% year-over-year, while this week it remains up 1.3% YoY. The four week moving average fell from 2.9% YoY to 2.3%. Year-to-date gains have fallen from 5.0% to 4.9%.
Total US Rail Traffic
Major Commodity Groups | Total | Grain | Chemicals | Food | Forest | Metals | Coal | Autos | Intermodal |
Current Week | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 1.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 8.1% | (5.0%) | 13.1% | 2.5% |
Vs. 2009 | 27.5% | 14.5% | 25.6% | (4.2%) | 16.6% | 95.7% | 0.6% | 155.7% | 40.0% |
4 Week Rolling Avg. | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 2.3% | 9.5% | 2.9% | (0.2%) | 4.9% | 7.3% | (2.8%) | 3.0% | 4.1% |
Vs. 2009 | 19.7% | 23.0% | 16.7% | (1.8%) | 7.6% | 75.9% | (0.7%) | 64.7% | 28.7% |
Quarter to Date | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 3.2% | 13.0% | 3.2% | (0.7%) | 0.6% | 5.1% | (2.7%) | 3.1% | 6.8% |
Vs. 2009 | 19.1% | 29.3% | 16.2% | (0.6%) | 7.6% | 80.1% | 2.2% | 51.7% | 25.6% |
Year to Date | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 4.9% | 8.0% | 5.3% | (3.0%) | 3.7% | 8.1% | 0.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% |
Vs. 2009 | 15.3% | 24.4% | 17.9% | 0.8% | 7.5% | 62.1% | (0.7%) | 48.2% | 21.7% |