Econintersect: Rail traffic YoY growth fell again year-over-year in week 21 of 2011 ending 28 May 2011 according to Railfax.
Combined with the terrible economic data over the last two weeks, it is beginning to seem the main indicators of economic expansion (transport) are slowing.
Performance year to date for 2011 has been weakening, however the four week trendline is holding steady between 3% to 4% YoY improvement. This week’s 2.3% increase is below trend.
Last week rail traffic was up 5.0% year-over-year, while this week it is only up 2.3% YoY. The four week moving average declined from 3.8% YoY to 3.5%. Year-to-date gains fell from 5.6% to 5.4%.
Total US Rail Traffic
Major Commodity Groups | Total | Grain | Chemicals | Food | Forest | Metals | Coal | Autos | Intermodal |
Current Week | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 2.3% | 16.5% | 2.9% | (2.4%) | (2.3%) | 3.7% | (0.5%) | (3.8%) | 4.2% |
Vs. 2009 | 30.5% | 35.4% | 22.3% | 3.2% | 10.0% | 115.3% | 7.8% | 72.0% | 41.3% |
4 Week Rolling Avg. | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 3.5% | 15.2% | 3.6% | (0.7%) | (1.1%) | 3.5% | (1.8%) | (3.0%) | 7.5% |
Vs. 2009 | 21.2% | 32.5% | 17.1% | (0.2%) | 7.5% | 79.2% | 4.8% | 53.3% | 27.9% |
Quarter to Date | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 3.6% | 14.1% | 2.9% | (1.4%) | (1.8%) | 3.2% | (2.4%) | 3.1% | 8.3% |
Vs. 2009 | 20.3% | 32.8% | 16.6% | 1.2% | 8.1% | 82.5% | 4.4% | 49.3% | 26.2% |
Year to Date | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 5.4% | 7.4% | 5.7% | (3.8%) | 3.5% | 8.1% | 1.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% |
Vs. 2009 | 14.8% | 24.5% | 18.4% | 1.9% | 7.7% | 58.7% | (0.6%) | 46.6% | 21.0% |