Econintersect: The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) who Econintersect follows for its long range forecasts – is now forecasting a summer cyclical peak in global industrial output. This includes China.
In a Business Investors Daily article (see clarification below):
The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s long leading indicator of global industrial growth peaked at 0.7 in August 2010, predicting a cyclical peak for industrial activity this August. The index stood at 0.1 in March, near the lowest level since January 1980.
“There’s a downturn in global industrial growth in clear sight,” said ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan.
Output has already started to decelerate in the U.S., Europe and key emerging market countries such as China that have driven the global economic recovery. Yet Achuthan said he sees no sign of a renewed recession.
Clarification 21May2011: this article was published in investors.com – the online version of Investor’s Business Daily.
