Econintersect: Matt Robinson, Senior Economist at Moody Analytics, is forecasting real GDP growth for India in 2011 to be about 9%, roughly in line with growth in China. This is in the middle of the range estimated by the Indian government, as reported by GEI News. A most interesting note in the Moody’s estimate is the mention of growth in agriculture boosting the India GDP. This was discussed in an Op Ed by GEI‘s Sunil Chandra on February 17.From the article by moneycontrol.com (referring to Matt Robinson’s analysis):
This was the fourth successive quarter of GDP growth in excess of 8%, and “with strong population growth, rising exports and expanding services”, India’s growth rate looks set to rival China’s in 2011, expected to head towards the 9% mark, he said in a note to clients.
In Robinson’s estimation, the drivers of growth in the December quarter were the finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors, and the trade, hotel, transport and communications sectors.
The outlook for India remains favourable, and growth looks set to rival China’s in 2011, Robinson added. A return to solid growth in the agricultural sector would complement strong expansion in services, propelling GDP growth towards the 9% mark.
Submitted by Sanjeev Kulkarni