GDP Statistics Revised for 2007-2009

Econintersect:  The GEI editor was updating some GDP research yesterday and found that the GDP data in our files did not agree with data just downloaded from the St. Louis Fed.  Starting with first quarter 2007 the real GDP numbers were slightly lower with the new downlod than we had used previously.  The reason?  The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) had revised the data in December.  The following is the news release discussing that revision.      

Downturns in durable-goods manufacturing and professional, scientific, and technical services along with the continued contraction of construction were among the leading contributors to the decline in U.S. economic growth in 2009, according to revised statistics on the breakout of real gross domestic product (GDP) by industry from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The revised statistics reflect the incorporation of newly available source data, primarily revised corporate profits by industry.¹ The economic downturn was widespread with 16 of 22 major industry groups contributing to the decline in real GDP growth.

• Manufacturing value added—a measure of an industry’s contribution to GDP—declined for the second consecutive year, falling 8.6 percent in 2009, more sharply than the 4.8 percent decline in 2008. Durable-goods manufacturing decreased 12.7 percent in 2009 after growing 1.0 percent in 2008. Nondurable-goods manufacturing declined at a slower rate of 3.4 percent in 2009, compared with the 11.8 percent drop in 2008.
• Construction declined for the fifth consecutive year, falling 15.6 percent in 2009, compared to a decline of 5.7 percent in 2008.
• Professional, scientific and technical services turned down in 2009, falling 3.4 percent, after increasing 4.2 percent in 2008.

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Prices:

Declines in value added prices for mining, wholesale trade, and agriculture were the largest contributors to the slowdown in the GDP price index for 2009. Value added prices measure changes in an industry’s labor and capital input prices, including profit margins.

• Prices for mining fell sharply in 2009, decreasing 40.4 percent after increasing 29.1 percent in 2008, primarily reflecting steep declines in prices for petroleum, natural gas, and other mining products.
• Prices for agriculture fell 21.0 percent in 2009, after increasing 1.4 percent in 2008, primarily reflecting decreases in most crop and livestock commodity prices.

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• The private goods-producing sector value added fell 6.4 percent in 2009, after a 4.2 percent decline in 2008.
• The private services-producing sector declined by 2.1 percent, after a 0.4 percent increase in 2008.
• The finance and insurance industry grew 6.1 percent in 2009, partially offsetting the widespread economic decline. The increase was primarily driven by the strong recovery of the insurance carriers industry.

BEA’s national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.

¹Corporate profits were revised on July 30, 2010 with the release of the annual revision of the National Income and Product Accounts.  More detail on the sources of revision will be available in the January 2011 Survey of Current Business.

Source:  BEA News Release 12/14/2010