Econintersect: Here are highlights from the global economic calendar fro the week beginning January 17.
U.S. Holiday: Martin Luther King Jr. Day. All US markets will be closed.
U.S. 7:15 AM ET: Philly Fed President Charles Plosser speaks in Santiago, Chile “Thoughts on the Scope of Monetary Policy”
Singapore non-oil exports (Dec). Consensus expects a rise of 12.9%yoy up from 10% previously.
Philippines overseas remittances (Nov): Remittances grew 9.3%yoy in October, after rising 10.6%yoy in September.
Euroland: Ecofin Meeting.
Japan: Consumer Confidence Index, consensus 41.6, last 40.4.
Japan: Industrial Production (Revised), expected 1.0%, preliminary 1.0%.
UK: RICS House Price, consensus -43, last -44.
U.S. 8:00 AM ET: Citigroup Fourth Quarter 2010
U.S. 8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for January. Expected is a reading of 13 – 14, up from 10.57 in December.
U.S. 10 AM: The January NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 17, up slightly from 16 in December. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. This index has been below 25 for the last 3 1/2 years.
UK CPI (Dec): Consensus expects a rise of 3.3%yoy on headline and 2.6%yoy on core, not much difference to the previous reading.
UK: Retail Price Index, consensus 4.8% (Y/Y), last 4.7%.
German Economic Sentiment: Expected 7.0 – 7.2, last 4.3.
German ZEW (Jan): Consensus expects an unchanged print of 82.6.
Bank of Canada rate decision: Consensus expects no change.
U.S. TIC data (Nov): Foreign appetite for US assets outside of fixed income has been relatively lackluster in recent months.
U.S. Early: The AIA’s Architecture Billings Index for December (a leading indicator for commercial real estate). This index showed expansion (52.0) in November, the highest mark since December 2007. This index usually leads investment in non-residential structures (hotels, malls, office) by 9 to 12 months.
U.S. 7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index declined sharply following the expiration of the tax credit, and the index has only recovered slightly since then.
U.S. 8:00 AM: Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs Fourth Quarter 2010
U.S. 8:30 AM: Housing Starts for December. After collapsing following the housing bubble, housing starts have mostly moved sideways at a very depressed level for the last two years.
U.S. 8:30 AM: Building Permits for December.
Australia consumer confidence (Jan)
Malaysia CPI (Dec). Consensus expects a rise of 2.3%, up from 2.0% previously.
Euroland Balance of Payments (Nov): Expected -11.0B, last -9.8B.
Poland Central Bank Meeting: Consensus expects a 25bp hike given recent strong data prints and more hawkish central bank commentary recently.
Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
Brazil Central Bank Meeting: Consensus expects a 50bp hike.
U.S. 7:30 AM: Morgan Stanley Fourth Quarter 2010
U.S. 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The number of initial claims increased last week to 445,000, but the trend has been down over the last few months. The consensus is for a decrease to 420,000 from 445,000 last week.
U.S. 10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 4.9 million at a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in December, up about 5% from the 4.68 million SAAR in November. Economist Tom Lawler is projecting sales of 5.13 million in December.
U.S. 10:00 AM Leading Indicators from The Conference Board
U.S. 10:00 AM: Phildelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey. Consensus expects a print of 21.5, which is a slight fall on the previous month’s reading of 20.8.
U.S. 11:00 AM: Crude Oil Inventories
New Zealand CPI (Q4): Consensus expects a reading of 2.3% and the previous reading was 1.1%.
China GDP (Q4): consensus expects a rise of 9.4%yoy slightly down from 9.6% previously.
China CPI (Dec): Consensus expects a rise of 4.6% yoy down from 5.1% previously.
China Industrial Production (Dec): Consensus expects a rise of 13.4%yoy, almost unchanged on the previous reading of 13.3%.
China Retail Sales (Dec): Consensus expects a rise of 18.8% yoy, slightly up from 18.7% previously.
Taiwan Export Orders (Dec): Export orders increased 1.9% mom in November, after rising 0.8% mom. Consensus expects a rise of 12.35%yoy.
Turkey Central Bank Meeting: We expect a 25bps rate cut given Governor Yilmaz’s recent more cautious commentary, consensus expects a 50bps cut from 6.5% presently. Rates may remain on hold if the CBRT ‘pauses’ its current policy mix of reducing uncovered interest rate differentials while attempting to moderate growth in domestic credit.
South Africa Central Bank Meeting: We and the consensus expect rates to remain unchanged at 5.50%.
US Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims
U.S. 8:00 AM: Bank of America Fourth Quarter 2010 earnings announcement.
New Zealand Retail Sales (Nov): Consensus is looking for 1.2%mom and the previous reading was -2.5%mom on headline.
Germany IFO (Jan): Consensus expects a print of 109.6, marginally down on the previous reading of 109.9 which was a record high.
UK Retail Sales (Dec): The consensus reading ex autos is 1.3% and the previous reading is 1.8%.
Canada Retail sales (Nov): Consensus expects a rise of 0.4%mom on the headline down from 0.8% previously.
Mexico Central Bank Meeting: Banxico is likely to keep the TdF unchanged at 4.50%, consensus agrees. Statement neutral.
U.S. After 4:00 PM: The FDIC announces bank closings.