Global Economic Intersection
Advertisement
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
Global Economic Intersection
No Result
View All Result

Obamacare May Be A Significant Headwind to Economic Growth

admin by admin
April 4, 2015
in Uncategorized
0
0
SHARES
22
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Written by Steven Hansen

Early this week two posts hit my inbox within hours of each other – and I was thinking that the authors of these posts could not be living in the same world. One (Professor Paul Krugman) was attacking a Senator for misrepresenting / overstating the costs of Obamacare. The other author (Lance Roberts) told of the risks of increased healthcare spending on the economy.

Professor Krugman stated:

Whatever your overall view of the Affordable Care Act, one indisputable fact is that it’s costing taxpayers much less than expected — about 20 percent less, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

The link in the Professor Krugman’s quote states in part:

Remarkably, the growth of health care costs has slowed down significantly in recent years, enough so that budget analysts are having to reconsider their fiscal outlook of the law.

Lance Roberts was implying the opposite.

It gets better because in the fourth quarter total spending on healthcare in chained dollars was a whopping $35.3 billion.  An all time record!

Honestly, one quarter of data is not evidence. But here are a few FRED graphs to illustrate what is going on. The first graph indexes health care costs to consumer spending. Health Care costs moderated during the Great Recession – but look at the last 12 months where there is now a obvious acceleration of health care costs to CONSUMERS.

Again, the significant takeaway from the above graph is that consumers are spending more of their budgets on health care. The FRED graph below shows a historically high health care contribution to GDP growth in 4Q2014.

Was this burst of health care spending caused by Obamacare? I cannot provide this answer specifically, but the pro-Obamacare folks love to say that Obamacare is and will be reducing medical costs (all evidence to the contrary is ignored). My position is that I believe in a socialized medical care system of some flavor that would be suitable for American tastes. Denial of medical treatment is not acceptable any more than forced enrollment in government mandated private health care insurance  with few options.

The data is not showing Obamacare is reducing health care costs to consumers. 

I am far from a health care expert – but I spend a majority of my time sifting through data looking for trends. There are no PROVEN laws in economics – all theories are “proven” in uncontrolled situations where all the dynamics were not fixed [so it is impossible to say what dynamic mix created the outcomes]. Obamacare supporters, detractors, and the Congressional Budget Office argued the economic advantages or disadvantages of the law with no real formula to use to determine the economic outcome.  To argue that Obamacare would have had a net zero economic effect to consumers ignores that:

  • the government was now FORCING everyone to buy private health care insurance – an insurer is a for-profit entity and in reality health care was now a tax on consumers;
  • there was no changes made to the health care system to reduce costs – but it was believed (hoped) that requiring everyone to have insurance somehow would reduce costs;
  • the middle and richer end of the population would now be paying more for insurance;
  • the poorer end would now get inexpensive coverage (where many were not buying health care in the first place).

In the end, the majority of consumers are now spending more on health care based on the emerging evidence. As the USA economy is consumer driven, taking money from consumers is an economic headwind.

Finally, readers tend to fall in love with “theory” that supports their vision. Unfortunately, the talking heads out there may not be giving factual information. There seems to be four kinds of analysts / pundits:

  1. those that are trying to prove a point and ignore evidence to the contrary;
  2. those that are out to make headlines (usually by being negative about most things);
  3. those that are sloppy in investigating and deliver a half baked cake;
  4. those that do not care what the answer is – just want to understand.

You can decide what bracket to put everyone in.

Other Economic News this Week:

The Econintersect Economic Index for April 2015 is indicating growth will be sluggish. Most tracked sectors of the economy are expanding – but now there is contraction in some data sets. The negative effects of the recently solved West Coast Port slowdown (a labor dispute which had been going on for months) and bad weather continues to be seen in much of the raw data – and it will be an economic drag on 1Q2015 GDP and into 2Q2015. It is difficult to differentiate these transient issues (weather and labor) from cyclic economic conditions – but one could argue that transient issues are the cause of economic cycles.

The ECRI WLI growth index remains slightly in negative territory which implies the economy will have little growth 6 months from today.

Current ECRI WLI Growth Index

The market was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 275,000 to 295,000 (consensus 285,000) vs the 268,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 300,250 (reported last week as 297,000) to 285,500. The rolling averages have been equal to or under 300,000 for most of the last 6 months. Note that this week’s release reflects the annual revision to the weekly unemployment claims seasonal adjustment factors. The seasonal adjustment factors used for the UI Weekly Claims data from 2010 forward, along with the resulting seasonally adjusted values for initial claims and continuing claims, have been revised.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line), 2014 (orange line), 2015 (violet line)

/images/z unemployment.PNG

Bankruptcies this Week: Altegrity,

Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:

Previous Post

Nominal GDP: Target Or Benchmark?

Next Post

Easter In The United States By The Numbers

Related Posts

Zero-Day Spells Doom For Bitcoin ATMs
Economics

Zero-Day Spells Doom For Bitcoin ATMs

by John Wanguba
March 26, 2023
Exiled Chinese Billionaire Guo Wengui Arrested By US Authorities Linked With $1B Fraud Scheme Allegations
Econ Intersect News

Exiled Chinese Billionaire Guo Wengui Arrested By US Authorities Linked With $1B Fraud Scheme Allegations

by John Wanguba
March 26, 2023
Shibarium To Use 70% Of Each Base Transaction Fee To Burn Shiba Inu
Economics

Shibarium To Use 70% Of Each Base Transaction Fee To Burn Shiba Inu

by John Wanguba
March 25, 2023
Is Cardano A Good Investment In 2023?
Econ Intersect News

Is Cardano A Good Investment In 2023?

by John Wanguba
March 25, 2023
Canada's Banking Regulator Reiterates Creditor Hierarchy After Credit Suisse Deal Riled Bondholders
Business

Canada’s Banking Regulator Reiterates Creditor Hierarchy After Credit Suisse Deal Riled Bondholders

by John Wanguba
March 25, 2023
Next Post

Easter In The United States By The Numbers

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Browse by Category

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Browse by Tags

adoption altcoins bank banking banks Binance Bitcoin Bitcoin adoption Bitcoin market Bitcoin mining blockchain BTC business China crypto crypto adoption cryptocurrency crypto exchange crypto market crypto regulation decentralized finance DeFi Elon Musk ETH Ethereum Europe FTX inflation investment market analysis Metaverse mining NFT nonfungible tokens oil market price analysis recession regulation Russia stock market technology Tesla the UK the US Twitter

Archives

  • March 2023
  • February 2023
  • January 2023
  • December 2022
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • July 2022
  • June 2022
  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • December 2021
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • July 2021
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • April 2021
  • March 2021
  • February 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • March 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • December 2017
  • November 2017
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • June 2017
  • May 2017
  • April 2017
  • March 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • February 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • May 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • August 2010
  • August 2009

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized
Global Economic Intersection

After nearly 11 years of 24/7/365 operation, Global Economic Intersection co-founders Steven Hansen and John Lounsbury are retiring. The new owner, a global media company in London, is in the process of completing the set-up of Global Economic Intersection files in their system and publishing platform. The official website ownership transfer took place on 24 August.

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Recent Posts

  • Zero-Day Spells Doom For Bitcoin ATMs
  • Exiled Chinese Billionaire Guo Wengui Arrested By US Authorities Linked With $1B Fraud Scheme Allegations
  • Shibarium To Use 70% Of Each Base Transaction Fee To Burn Shiba Inu

© Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Contact Us
  • Bitcoin Robot
    • Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Code
    • Quantum AI
    • eKrona Cryptocurrency
    • Bitcoin Up
    • Bitcoin Prime
    • Yuan Pay Group
    • Immediate Profit
    • BitIQ
    • Bitcoin Loophole
    • Crypto Boom
    • Bitcoin Era
    • Bitcoin Treasure
    • Bitcoin Lucro
    • Bitcoin System
    • Oil Profit
    • The News Spy
    • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Trader
  • Bitcoin Reddit

© Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

en English
ar Arabicbg Bulgarianda Danishnl Dutchen Englishfi Finnishfr Frenchde Germanel Greekit Italianja Japaneselv Latvianno Norwegianpl Polishpt Portuguesero Romanianes Spanishsv Swedish