Market Commentary: Markets Open Down Under Moderate Volume

Written by Gary

Opening Market Commentary For 09-09-2014

Premarkets were down 10% and opened lower as US Secretary of the Treasury Jack Lew says US faces $1 trillion gap in infrastructures needs.

By 10 am the averages were down with the DOW off the most at a half percent on moderate volume. The Bear roars this morning.

The news headline is all about Apple AAPL, +1.31% imminent news announcement and how that has depressed the market. Sorry, I don’t buy that for a moment. The market is weak – WEAK and it won’t take much to send it south.

Stocks fall moderately in early trading; Investors wait for Apple’s product announcement

NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks declined for a second day Tuesday as investors worked through a bundle of corporate news from Apple, Home Depot and General Mills.

Investors also continue to watch international markets, where the dollar reached a six-year high against the Japanese yen. KEEPING SCORE: The Dow Jones industrial average lost 825 points, or 0.5 percent, to 17,027 as of 9:56 a.m. Eastern.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost seven points, or 0.3 percent, to 1,995 and the Nasdaq composite fell 14 points, or 0.3 percent, to 4,578. HOME REPAIRS NEEDED: Home Depot fell $1.37, or 1.5 percent, to $89.46 after the home improvement giant said that hackers had broken into its in-store payment systems. The problem follows a massive data breach at Target nearly a year ago. APPLE OF MY EYE: Apple

From MarketWatch:

Stocks to watch: The iPhone maker AAPL, +1.27% will hold its product event at 10 a.m. PDT (1 p.m. Eastern) near its headquarters in Cupertino, Calif. The newest version of its flagship phone and an iWatch wearable device are among key things that could help boost shares of Apple. Also read: Tim Mullaney on why Apple exemplifies everything that’s wrong about Silicon Valley.

McDonald’s MCD, -0.47% said global comparable sales fell 3.7% in August and blamed “several headwinds” for the decline. The fast-food restaurant chain also warned that the problems with a supplier in China will hurt third-quarter results. Also read: The secret to a long life? Fast food

Shares of Annie’s Inc. BNNY, +37.36% rose 37%, on the heels of a similar late-session rally after General Mills Inc. GIS, -0.48% offered to buy the organic foods company for $820 million in cash.

Shares of Pinnacle Foods Inc. PF, -4.56% fell 3.8% after the packaged-foods company said some shareholders tied primarily to investment firm Blackstone will sell 15 million common shares.

Barnes & Noble Inc. BKS, +2.35% shares reversed losses made immediately in the wake of the bookseller’s quarterly results, and shares were up 2.7%. Same-store sales fell by more than expected, but the loss was not as large as expected. Read about more of the day’s notable stock moves here.

Other markets: The yield on the 10-year Treasurys 10_YEAR, +0.85% rose 3 basis points to 2.5%, its highest since the beginning of August on a closing basis. Brent crude oil prices LCOV4, -0.12% held steady at $100 a barrel, while the dollar charted new highs against the yen USDJPY, +0.16% and the euro EURUSD, -0.07% Europe stocks SXXP, -0.28% posted mild losses, while Asia markets ADOW, -0.44% saw mostly modest gains.

The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 11.79. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.

Investing.com members’ sentiments are 66 % Bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against ‘Sheeple’ buying high and selling low.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 61.1% bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here )

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 65.76. (Chart Here) Very close to resistance now and now flatting.

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 75.60. (Chart Here) Remains below support, now resistance and flatting.

StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 24.93. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.

StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -8.71. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) It is now around the area where it turns and starts to descend, but any thing below -30 / -40 is a concern. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. Wednesday, 8-20-2014, $NYMO climbed to 58.24 is signaling a market reversal and apparently it has started.

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 98.55. (Chart Here)

Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and that is another notch in the gun signaling that we might have another reversal very soon – at least to cover the gap below at 67.85. Protect thyself!

The DOW at 10:30 is at 17021 down 91 or -0.53%.

The SP500 is at 1992 down 9 or -0.46%.

SPY is at 199.70 down 0.90 or -0.45%.

The $RUT is at 1163 down 9 or -0.75%.

NASDAQ is at 4575 down 17 or -0.36%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 8085 down 11 or -0.26%.

$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 13.05 up 0.40 or 3.16%. BearishMovement

(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been neutral and the current bias is negative.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 93.94 (resistance) and 92.75 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 92.94. (Chart Here) There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here) (Look at the 5H time scale.)

Brent Crude is trading between 100.62 (resistance) and 99.60 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 99.77. (Chart Here)

Why Gold Will Rise When The Dollar Falls

– and –

The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.

Gold is volatile and trading from 1258.93 and 1252.92 and is currently trading down at 1254.90. The current intra-session trend is negative. (Chart Here)

Dr. Copper is at 3.099 falling from 3.187 earlier. (Chart Here)

The US dollar is trading between 84.65 and 84.38 and is currently trading down at 84.55, the bias is currently neutral and quiet. (Chart Here) >>>> There is a gap below between 83.92 and 83.79, watch out below as this rise is expected to be temporary.<<<<<<

The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!

“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett

If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the ‘Follow‘ button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.

Real Time Market Numbers

To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

[email protected]

Written by Gary