by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 297,870 in the week ending April 19, a decrease of 20,923 (or -6.6 percent) from the previous week. There were 326,264 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013. – DoL
Compared to the comparable week last year claims declined 8.6%, consistent with recent trends…. More to follow.
The seasonally adjusted headline number was 329,000. Keep in mind that that is a made up number. Conomists consensus was for 312,000. Not a bad guess. Bloomberg blamed the seasonal adjustment factor for the Easter holiday for the miss. The actual unadjusted data was absolutely consistent with the trend.
According to the DoL – “The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 42,668 (or -13.4 percent) from the previous week,” versus the actual decline of 20,923. The 10 year average for the comparable week was a drop of 29,306. Accounting for the holiday, this was a slightly below average performance for the week.
However, this was the lowest number of claims for this week since April 2006, at the top of the housing/credit bubble. As a percentage of total eligible workers, this week was lower than the 2006 figure, and was the lowest since April 2000.
This suggests an economy stretched to its limits by the distortions and missallocation of labor caused by QE.