Global Economic Intersection
Advertisement
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitIQ
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitIQ
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
Global Economic Intersection
No Result
View All Result

7 Year Trend of Falling Unemployment Claims Slows

admin by admin
December 14, 2015
in Uncategorized
0
0
SHARES
0
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner

First time claims for unemployment compensation continued their string of record lows for the same week of the year but the improvement in the weekly number slowed radically last week in what could be the first sign of trend change.

The actual number, not subject to any seasonal hocus pocus was 384,481. That was 2,668 claims per million employed workers. That compares with bubble low of 3,350 per million for the same week of December, in 2007 just after stocks had topped out and the housing bubble was deflating. At the top of the internet/tech bubble in December 1999, the number was 2,877. The current bubble continues to break the records of the past 43 years.

The Department of Labor (DoL) reports the unmanipulated numbers that state unemployment offices actually count and report each week. This week it said, “The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 384,481 in the week ending December 5, an increase of 121,853 (or 46.4 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 103,867 (or 39.5 percent) from the previous week. There were 389,284 initial claims in the comparable week in 2014. ”


Click here to view chart

We use actual data, as opposed to the seasonally manipulated headline numbers which Big Media shovels out for mass consumption. To see from the actual numbers if there’s any evidence of trend change we must look at how the current week compares with the comparable week in prior years.

Liquidity moves markets!

Click here to learn how you can follow the money.

The actual change for the current week versus the prior week was an increase of +121,853. The 10 year average for actual data for that week was an increase of +138,040, so the current week was a little better than average. However, the same week last year saw a jump of only +94,895. The current week was not as strong as this week last year which could be a sign that the momentum is beginning to shift.

Week to week changes are noisy. The trend is what matters. Since 2010 the annual change rate each week has mostly fluctuated between -5% and -15%. Last week was outside that range with a year to year drop of just -1.2%, another sign of possibly slowing momentum. But one week does not a trend make. The two weeks prior were within the usual range. Still, this bears watching.

A persistent shift to a year to year increase in claims would be a sign that the US economy is headed for recession. That shift has yet to happen.

The stock market is a key. Employers normally take their cues from stock prices. The Fed knows that businesspeople watch the stock market and often base hiring and firing decisions on its direction. The Fed seems intent on following through on the charade of trying to raise interest rates, but a weakening market would not only make the Fed even more cautious about continuing that course, it would at some point possibly even put QE back on the table.

The quantity of central bank printed money is more important to market trends than the cost of money. A variant of that idea that said that printing money would stimulate the economy spawned QE. In spite of all the evidence from Japan, Europe, and the US that QE stimulates only financial engineering, speculation and financial asset bubbles, and not real economic growth, central bankers continue to believe the economic mythology that it does. So the Fed has been cowering in reluctance to shrink its balance sheet and return to any semblance of a “normal” monetary policy.

In the meantime, the Fed has enabled and encouraged financial speculators and corporate executives to carry out a massive skimming operation which impoverishes an ever increasing portion of US households. Likewise, businesses have acted out a low-pay job hoarding bubble in response to the signals from the Fed QE-driven stock market bubble that has only recently stopped bubbling.


Click here to view chart

Employers saw the housing bubble beginning to deflate in 2006 and reacted accordingly, starting to lay people off that year. Stock traders were the last to get the news as the Fed kept growing its System Open Market Account (SOMA) at the then “normal” growth rate of 5% through mid 2007, when it stopped, before shrinking the SOMA late in 2007 and 2008. Employers, watching stock prices continuing to bubble near the highs cut back on layoffs again in 2007, but they chopped heads in droves as stock prices fell in 2008. .

The Fed stopped growing the SOMA last October. Since then stock prices have leveled out. Employers have started to catch on but continue to hoard their low paid workers. The massive layoffs won’t come until after stock prices have broken down.

The longer this goes on, the closer we come to the next “adjustment.”

I chart and analyze the real time Federal Withholding Tax data in the weekly Wall Street Examiner Pro Trader- Federal Revenues report. It has been an excellent predictor of final revised non farm payrolls and GDP.

Addendum (Reposted from earlier reports)

In the Tale of Two Economies, massive gains accruing to the investor/speculator/corporate mafiosi class skew the headline economic numbers positive while the bulk of the American people experience no gains. QE and ZIRP have caused Ben Bernanke’s trickle to pool at the top with the banker/speculator/investor/corporate looter crowd. Meanwhile, the vast majority of American families have seen their household income stagnate for more than a decade as QE and ZIRP create perverse economic incentives that work to their detriment. The ever increasing economic drag which that creates will eventually result in negative top line numbers, but we aren’t there yet.

Record low claims are the patina of policy success that Wall Street and the dangerous, corrupt media empires that spread its propaganda use to anesthetize and hypnotize the public. The data hides the basic truth that most Americans are not doing well economically. These record claims represent a bubble that was born out of and is joined at the hip with the financial engineering bubble that has been metastasizing in the US economy for a generation.

We can thank central bank policy for the economic divide it has wrought and for the long term adjustment that lies ahead. The stock market faces the problem of reduced long term profitability that will ultimately result if most Americans can’t afford to buy the products and services that corporate America produces.

If you are new to these reports, here is a review of the key historical antecedents of the extreme readings on initial claims from a post, August 13, 2015.

Historical Initial Claims and Bubbles
Historical Initial Claims and Bubbles
Click here to view chart if viewing in email

“In recent weeks, Big Media and others have noted the fact that claims were recently lower than the record low of 1973. What they failed to mention was that that low came well after the Dow reached an all time high in January of that year. The devastating 1973-74 bear market, which cut the value of stocks by 50%, was in its early stages. This was an early example of employers being late to the funeral.

“Similar employer hoarding of workers has been associated with bubbles in the more recent past and has led to massive retrenchment, usually within 18 months or so. In the housing bubble, employer hoarding behavior continued well beyond the peak of that bubble in 2005-06.

“It’s worth noting that there was an institutional stock market bubble in 1972-73. It was the Nifty Fifty bubble, where the biggest best known stocks kept soaring while everything else in the market went nowhere. A bubble does not require mass public participation. Institutional bubbles are just as insidious, even more so.

“The current string of record lows in claims is now 6 months beyond the point at which other major bubbles have begun to deflate. Based on the fact that previous records were attained at and for some time after the peaks of massive bubbles, by that standard, the current financial engineering, central bank bubble finance bubble, which is very much a big money, institutional bubble, may be the bubble to end all bubbles!


Previous Post

If You Enjoy Wine – Avoid Blind Tastings

Next Post

Rising Tides And Economyths

Related Posts

Weaker Dollar Keeps Bitcoin Above $30K As Analysts Target 60% BTC Dominance
Economics

Weaker Dollar Keeps Bitcoin Above $30K As Analysts Target 60% BTC Dominance

by John Wanguba
May 20, 2022
Ethereum Developers Tip The Merge Might Happen In August ‘If All Goes As Planned’
Business

Ethereum Developers Tip The Merge Might Happen In August ‘If All Goes As Planned’

by John Wanguba
May 20, 2022
Commonwealth Bank Puts Crypto Trading Test On Ice As Regulators Hesitate
Business

Commonwealth Bank Puts Crypto Trading Test On Ice As Regulators Hesitate

by John Wanguba
May 20, 2022
Musk Hints He Could Reprice Twitter Deal As He Looks At Fake Accounts
Business

Musk Hints He Could Reprice Twitter Deal As He Looks At Fake Accounts

by John Wanguba
May 18, 2022
Madonna Joins Hands With Digital Artist “Beeple” To Launch New NFTs
Business

Madonna Joins Hands With Digital Artist “Beeple” To Launch New NFTs

by John Wanguba
May 18, 2022
Next Post

Rising Tides And Economyths

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Browse by Category

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Browse by Tags

adoption altcoins banking Binance Bitcoin Bitcoin adoption Bitcoin market Bitcoin mining blockchain BTC business Coinbase crypto crypto adoption cryptocurrency crypto exchange crypto market crypto regulation decentralized finance DeFi digital assets Elon Musk ETH Ethereum Ethereum blockchain finance funding government investment market analysis Metaverse mining NFT NFT marketplace NFTs nonfungible tokens nonfungible tokens (NFTs) price analysis regulation Russia social media technology Tesla the US Twitter

Archives

  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • December 2021
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • July 2021
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • April 2021
  • March 2021
  • February 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • March 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • December 2017
  • November 2017
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • June 2017
  • May 2017
  • April 2017
  • March 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • February 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • May 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • August 2010
  • August 2009

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized
Global Economic Intersection

After nearly 11 years of 24/7/365 operation, Global Economic Intersection co-founders Steven Hansen and John Lounsbury are retiring. The new owner, a global media company in London, is in the process of completing the set-up of Global Economic Intersection files in their system and publishing platform. The official website ownership transfer took place on 24 August.

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Recent Posts

  • Weaker Dollar Keeps Bitcoin Above $30K As Analysts Target 60% BTC Dominance
  • Ethereum Developers Tip The Merge Might Happen In August ‘If All Goes As Planned’
  • Commonwealth Bank Puts Crypto Trading Test On Ice As Regulators Hesitate

© Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Contact Us
  • Bitcoin Robot
    • Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Code
    • Quantum AI
    • eKrona Cryptocurrency
    • Bitcoin Up
    • Bitcoin Prime
    • Yuan Pay Group
    • Immediate Profit
    • BitIQ
    • Bitcoin Loophole
    • Crypto Boom
    • Bitcoin Era
    • Bitcoin Treasure
    • Bitcoin Lucro
    • Bitcoin System
    • Oil Profit
    • The News Spy
    • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Trader
  • Bitcoin Reddit

© Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

en English
ar Arabicbg Bulgarianda Danishnl Dutchen Englishfi Finnishfr Frenchde Germanel Greekit Italianja Japaneselv Latvianno Norwegianpl Polishpt Portuguesero Romanianes Spanishsv Swedish