Oil, Gas, And Fracking News Reads: 08March 2020 – Part 2

Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666

Here are some more selected news articles about the oil and gas industry from the week ended 07 March 2020. Go here for Part 1.

This is a feature at Global Economic Intersection every Monday evening.

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Judge Tosses Oil and Gas Leases on Nearly One Million Acres of Public Lands – A federal judge banned oil and gas leases on nearly one million acres of public lands that are important habitat for the greater sage grouse, arguing that a Trump administration policy that curtailed public input on the leases was “arbitrary and capricious.” At the start of 2018, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) had issued a memo shortening the period for public comment and protest on oil and gas leases from 30 days to 10, Huffpost reported. But U.S. Chief Magistrate Judge Ronald Bush ruled in Idaho Thursday that around $125 million worth of leases issued under the new policy be tossed out and the full 30-day comment period restored. In his decision, Bush argued that BLM could not only consider the economic needs of fossil fuel industries at the expense of all other concerns. “If the words ‘justice so requires’ are to mean anything, they must satisfy the fundamental understanding of justice: that it requires an impartial look at the balance struck between the two sides of the scale, as the iconic statue of the blindfolded goddess of justice holding the scales aloft depicts,” he wrote. “Merely to look at only one side of the scales, whether solely the costs or solely the benefits, flunks this basic requirement.” The lawsuit was brought by the Center for Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Western Watersheds Project in a bid to protect greater sage grouse habitat, The Washington Post explained. The sage grouse, whose numbers have fallen from around 16 million to fewer than 500,000 because of disease and development, reflects the overall health of the Western sagebrush habitat that also houses hundreds of other species. Bush’s ruling tossed out five leases on more than 1,300 square miles – or more than 800,000 acres – of public lands in Nevada, Utah and Wyoming, according to HuffPost and The Hill. However, it could have implications for around 67 million acres of sage grouse habitat in 11 Western states. “This is an enormous victory for greater sage grouse and hundreds of other animals and plants that depend on this dwindling habitat,” CBD senior campaigner Taylor McKinnon said in a press release. “The judge confirmed that it’s illegal to silence the public to expand fossil-fuel extraction. It’s a win for millions of acres of our beautiful public lands and a major blow to the Trump administration’s corrupt efforts to serve corporate polluters.” The BLM said it was considering whether or not to appeal the ruling, according to The Washington Post.

Suncor oil refinery to pay $9 million in ‘Historic’ Colorado Pollution Settlement The massive Suncor oil refinery near low-income neighborhoods in Denver will pay roughly $9 million due to air pollution violations as part of a settlement that Colorado officials lauded as the largest ever for a single facility. State health officials said the refinery exceeded emissions limits for a host of health-harming pollutants, including hydrogen cyanide, nitrogen oxide and carbon monoxide. The violations were tracked from the summer of 2017 through the end of last year, officials with the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment said Friday as they announced the details of the settlement. The terms include:

• $2.6 million for “supplemental environmental projects” to benefit the surrounding community. The settlement provides for a community process which involves residents serving on a committee to review and select the projects to implement.
• Improved communications from Suncor, which “must work with the community to develop this program,” state officials said.
• Suncor is expected to enlist a third party to conduct a root cause investigation of critical refinery processes to determine the causes of excessive emissions with a goal of preventing or minimizing recurrences. Suncor is obligated to spend up to $5 million implementing the recommendations from the investigation.
• Suncor is required to increase monitoring for hydrogen cyanide both at the refinery and in the surrounding communities.
• Suncor must pay $1 million in cash administrative penalties to the state and $426,705 in stipulated and other cash penalties to the state and federal Environmental Protection Agency.

Landmark Win in ‘Fight for Habitable Future’ as Jury Refuses to Convict Climate Activists Who Presented Necessity Defense -Environmentalists celebrated a landmark victory in the “fight for a habitable future” after a Portland, Oregon jury on Thursday refused to convict five Extinction Rebellion activists – including valve turner Ken Ward – who presented the climate necessity defense at their trial for blockading a train track used by Zenith Energy to transport crude oil.The activists emphasized that the win was only partial because the criminal trespassing case ended in a mistrial rather than a full acquittal. Just one of six jurors voted to convict the activists while the five others voted to acquit.But Ward said the jury’s refusal to convict even when presented with video evidence of the trespassing “is a vindication of our call for climate activists to use a climate necessity defense,” which states that it is at times justified to break the law to combat the planetary crisis.”When citizens are told the truth about the climate crisis – which is the first of Extinction Rebellion’s demands – they take appropriate and responsible action, as our jury did, and we thank them,” said Ward.The five activists were arrested last April for building a garden on the tracks of Houston-based Zenith Energy’s railroad terminal in Portland to protest expansion of the fossil fuel infrastructure. “The activists had been protesting the expansion of the oil terminal at a time when they say we should be dismantling fossil fuel infrastructure, not creating more,” the local radio station KOPB-FM reported at the time. “A few small mounds of soil extend onto the rail line – not much, but apparently enough to make it unusable. Activists also sat on the tracks.”

Deserted oil wells haunt Los Angeles with toxic fumes and enormous cleanup costs – LA Times Thick oil was once so abundant beneath Southern California that it bubbled to the surface, most famously at the La Brea Tar Pits. But after more than a century of aggressive drilling by fossil fuel companies, most of Los Angeles’ profitable oil is gone. What remains is a costly legacy: nearly 1,000 wells across the city, in rich and poor neighborhoods, deserted by their owners and left to the state to clean, according to a first-of-its-kind analysis of state records by the Los Angeles Times and the Center for Public Integrity. Few U.S. cities are punctured with such a concentration of old drilling sites, with tens of thousands of residents living nearby, from Ladera Heights to Echo Park. If not plugged and cleaned up, many of these orphaned wells will continue to expose people to toxic gases, complicate redevelopment and pose rare but serious threats of explosions. If the state were to tackle the cleanup, it would cost tens of millions of dollars. Yet despite regulatory powers that in some ways are stronger than the state’s, Los Angeles has been slow and inconsistent in forcing the industry to take responsibility for its leaky legacy, according to the Times/Public Integrity investigation. Part of the problem is staffing. Until recently, the city Fire Department was operating with one full-time well inspector, resulting in sporadic enforcement. The department issued notices of violations for extended inactivity to two companies in 2009, then three in 2016, according to the results of a public records request. Then, in 2018, the department inspected wells all across the city, handing out notices to more companies covering dozens of wells. Battalion Chief James Hayden, whose responsibilities include the Los Angeles Fire Department’s oil and gas program, acknowledged that the city hadn’t provided adequate oversight of the industry. But with a second full-time inspector added this year and other employees trained to conduct additional inspections, he said, the department will work to ensure that operators “adequately manage their idle wells.” Even as it adds personnel, Los Angeles has been hesitant to use its full regulatory authority, which allows the city to mandate that an oil or gas well either be restarted or shuttered after it sits unused for a year.

Wells Fargo Joins U.S. Banks Declining To Fund New Arctic Oil Projects – Wells Fargo has become the third major U.S. bank to stop financing new oil and gas projects in the Arctic, joining the likes of Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan in a global drive of banks declining financing for the dirtiest fossil fuels and for projects in sensitive areas. In an updated policy guide on corporate responsibility, Wells Fargo says that “Wells Fargo does not directly finance oil and gas projects in the Arctic region, including the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) – part of a larger 2018 risk-based decision to forego participation in any project-specific transaction in the region.”Wells Fargo will not extend credit or facilitate transactions for coal projects involving mountain top removal (MTR) or to coal producers engaged in MTR mining, the bank says in its Environmental and Social Risk Management (ESRM) framework and policies. Referring to Arctic oil, Wells Fargo’s spokesman David Kennedy said in an emailed statement to Anchorage Daily News: “Our policy applies only to project finance in the region.” “We have ongoing business relationships with numerous companies involved in the oil and gas industry in the Alaska Arctic region and expect to continue those relationships long into the future,” Kennedy added. Wells Fargo is now the third U.S. bank that has vowed to stop financing new oil and gas projects in the Arctic region over the past three months. In December, Goldman Sachs said it would decline financing for new Arctic oilexploration and production and for new thermal coal mine development or strip mining, which made the investment bank the U.S. bank with the strongest restrictions on funding fossil fuels. Last week, JPMorgan Chase said it would not provide project financing or other forms of asset-specific financing for new oil and gas development in the Arctic. The bank also pledged not to provide lending, capital markets, or advisory services to companies whose revenues come mostly from coal, and to phase out its remaining credit exposure to such companies by 2024. JPMorgan also stops financing coal-fired power plants unless such plants utilize carbon capture and sequestration technology.

Exclusive: Indian refiners plan to wind down Venezuelan oil buys in April – sources (Reuters) – Indian refiners Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy are planning to wind down purchases of Venezuelan oil in April fearing future U.S. sanctions could choke off all avenues to trade with state-run oil firm PDVSA, three sources with knowledge of the matter said. Such a step by Reliance, which operates the world’s biggest refining complex, and Nayara – part owned by Russian oil major Rosneft – would severely curtail purchases by one of Venezuela’s last big export destinations. India accounted for about a third of Venezuela’s oil shipments in January. The move comes as U.S. President Donald Trump warned in New Delhi this week of an increase in sanctions in a bid to oust Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro, whose 2018 re-election was considered a sham by most Western countries. Washington last year imposed tough sanctions on PDVSA that cut off Venezuela from the United States, its biggest customer, and severely curbed trading with other major buyers of its oil, the nation’s main export. Venezuela’s once-strong petroleum industry has withered amid a years-long economic crisis. After several months with little action, the White House this month added Rosneft Trading SA, the Geneva-based unit Rosneft, to its list of sanctioned companies over accusations that it hid the country of origin of oil cargoes loaded at Venezuelan ports and later resold in Asia. The U.S. set a May 20 deadline for companies to wind down purchases from Rosneft. Nayara Energy, partially owned by Rosneft, is planning to stop processing Venezuelan oil at its refineries after receiving two cargoes that are scheduled for loading in March, two of the sources said. Nayara said it is in compliance with all relevant and applicable U.S. sanctions. “We reaffirm our commitment to this position following the recent announcements”, it said in an email to Reuters. Rosneft did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Brazil’s Petrobras starts sale process for stakes in gas unit, oil fields (Reuters) – Brazil’s state-controlled oil company Petrobras said on Thursday it has started the sale process for its 51% stake in the gas unit Gaspetro and for its stakes in the Merluza and Lagosta oil fields in Brazil’s Santos basin, according to a securities filing. Gaspetro is a holding company owning stakes in 19 firms that operate in the Brazilian gas distribution business.

Stellar Banner grounding: Vale mobilizing oil spill response assets — .Salvage and oil spill response assets are being mobilized to deal with the partially submerged Stellar Banner stranded off the coast of Brazil. The Brazilian Navy on Thursday met with representatives from Vale, salvor Ardent Global, and local government officials to go review the best course of action for the vessel, which remains aground approximately 60 miles from São Lu’s. Vale so far has requested oil spill recovery vessels from Petrobras to help contain any oil leaks from the vessel. Meanwhile, it has also requested for formal authorization from the Brazilian Institute of the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA) to mobilize additional vessels to the area to help with the response. Vale said the South Korean owner and operator of the Stellar Banner, Polaris Shipping, has hired global salvage firm Ardent Global to draw up salvage plans. The Brazilian Navy reported Thursday that the shipowner has four tugs on scene for support and response in case any oil leaks from the vessel. The Navy said Thursday that so far no fuel leaks had been confirmed, however images posted online show oil sheens on the surface of the water surrounding the vessel, sparking fears that bunker fuel could be leaking from the ship’s tanks. The 300,663 dwt Stellar Banner started listing and was intentionally grounded Monday night after departing Vale’s Ponta da Madeira Maritime Terminal where it loaded iron ore bound for Qingdao, China. Vale said initial reports Polaris indicate that the ship suffered damage to its bow shorty after leaving the terminal and the vessel was grounded to prevent it from sinking. Polaris Shipping was also owner of the 266,141 dwt Stellar Daisy which sunk in the Atlantic Ocean in March 2017 with the loss of all but two of the ship’s twenty-four crew members. The wreckage of the vessel was eventually located in last February 2019 in 3,461 meters of water.

Oil spill recovery vessels reach stricken Stellar Banner –The very large ore carrier (VLOC), which is stranded some 100 km off the coast of São Lu’s, Brazil, still has its fuel tanks intact, reports port operator Vale. The Stellar Banner ran aground on 24 February on the way out of the access channel of the Ponta da Madeira marine terminal. Her 20 crew members were safely evacuated after the incident. In an update on the situation, Vale said that two oil spill recovery vessels (OSRVs) had reached the vessel, which is owned and operated by South Korean company Polaris. TheStellar Banner’s fuel tanks are located on the stern of the vessel which is the opposite side of the damaged areas.The OSRVs were mobilised with support from Petrobras, and the Stellar Banner has also been surrounded with a 200 -metre containment barrier to prevent any oil leakage. According to Vale, salvage specialists will also be appointed to support the process of moving oil from the vessel.

Holiday campers complain of oil spill along Al Aqah beach – Beachgoers have spotted trails of oil along Al Aqah Beach in Fujairah after an oil spill hit the area on Sunday. A number of campers shared videos of the coastline covered with black oil that was washed ashore. The oil covered around 1.5 kilometres of the beach and reached some of the hotels next to the public beach camping site. Livia Behiry was camping at the beach along with family and friends when she smelt a foul odour and noticed the black oil along the coast at about 12pm on Sunday. “The smell was awful and toxic and the sand was covered with black oil,” said Ms Behiry, 36, Romanian resident of Dubai. “We usually camp here with friends and we like the area a lot but what I saw on Sunday made me feel sad and worried about the marine life and the environment.” Samer Khalil, a family friend of Ms Behiry, took a video of the oil spill.He said this was not the first time as he has witnessed spills in the same area. “I remember we came here last November and there were patches of oil in the water that got stuck on our skin while swimming,” said Mr Khalil, 43, an Egyptian hotelier living in Dubai. “But this time it was much worse and covered the whole beach, filling the air with a very bad smell, like gas.

China oil refining profits plunge 42% in 2019 as overcapacity grows – industry – (Reuters) – Profit margins in China’s crude oil refining sector plunged 42% in 2019 from a year earlier, the steepest fall in 5 years, an industry body said on Tuesday, warning that overcapacity is a growing problem. Some small- and medium-sized refineries were also likely face financial pressure from a fall in sales and a rise in inventory amid the coronavirus outbreak, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation (CPCIF) said, but the impact would be mainly felt in the first quarter. “For the full year and longer term, overcapacity will still be the dominant issue in the industry,” CPCIF vice chairman Fu Xiangsheng said at a press briefing. Increasing capacity in China and weak domestic demand, fuelled in part by the Sino-U.S. trade war, led to a surge in refined product exports to the rest of Asia in 2019, helping to depress prices across the region. China, the world’s top crude oil importer, boosted its annual crude oil refining capacity by 3.4% in 2019 to 860 million tonnes, equal to 17.2 million barrels per day. It is is expected to add another 27 million tonnes, or about 3.1%, of refining capacity in 2020. “We have growing concerns over the overcapacity issue,” Fu said.

Saudis join shale gas race – Last week Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser told Reuters that the company is launching the biggest shale gas development outside the U.S. to boost domestic gas supply to be used to replace oil to firepower generation plants.The $110 billion Jafurah shale gas field project received the green light from Aramco on Saturday aimed at making Saudi Arabia world’s third-largest gas producer by 2030. Top two producers are U.S. and Russia. The plan is to use the gas to replace 800,000 bpd crude used for power plants to generate electricity by 2030. Fracking is a controversial way of extracting natural gas from beneath the earth’s surface which was previously too costly to tap. It has already proven to have triggered earthquake, and with a potential to cause numerous other forms of ecological damage, it has been banned by some countries. Fracking extracts that gas by drilling into rocks by injecting pressurized water mixed with various chemicals to force it out, inevitably disturbing a terrestrial netherworld. Fracking uses a substantial amount of water which is mixed with chemicals, including toxic liquids, acids, detergents and poisons, known as “fracking cocktail” that is thrust with high pressure on the shale, thereby cracking them and releasing the gas. In short extracting natural gas from rock. The long-term impact of injecting the earth with such a lethal chemical cocktail has not been studied thoroughly. What is known is that fracking causes earthquakes, rampant air and water pollution, and an ever-growing list of public health problems. And then there are risks to the climate. Once you properly account for emissions of carbon dioxide and methane (from natural gas), the supposed advantages of switching to gas-fired power plants from coal are far less impressive than advertised. With the severe shortage of water in the region, Nasser said Aramco had developed fracking using seawater, which will remove the obstacle that a lack of water supply represents to fracking in the desert. The Jufarah field is near the Persian Gulf coast, having relatively easy access to seawater, which will have to be lightly treated before using in fracking. Aramco has also identical local sand that can be used for fracking, insists Nasser. Saudi Arabia is bordered by Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Yemen. There has been no comments from the neighbors about the ecological damage that such a project can bring with it.

Iran’s Latest Energy Project Should Worry The West – Iran has moved exceptionally quickly on developing its Bandar-e-Jask port project. Crucially, Jask is not located in the perennially risky Strait of Hormuz but south-southeast in the Gulf of Oman. This offers a relatively risk-free shipping transit route to Iran’s key markets in the East, especially China and more latterly India, and to markets further south in Africa on a more occasional basis. According to recent comments from Touraj Dehqani, chief executive officer of Iran’s Petroleum Engineering and Development Company (PEDEC) – the company in charge of building the project out, in tandem with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) – the first full phase of crude oil exports from Jask will begin within the next 12 months, with the final build out towards this goal beginning this month. Once fully operational, this project would transfer 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from Iran, particularly in the first stage from the cluster of resource-rich fields in the West Karoun area. In addition, Jask will also be used to move crude oil feedstock supply to petro-refineries and petrochemical plants, with a view to increasing these exports as well to Asia. “The current logistical model in the current circumstances is not sustainable, with around 90 per cent of all of Iran’s oil for export currently loaded at Kharg Island – with most of the remaining loads going through terminals on Lavan and Sirri – making it a prime and easy target to cripple Iran’s economy,” a senior source who works closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry told OilPrice.com last week. “On the other side of the equation, Iran wants to be able to use the threat – or reality if it comes to that – of closing the Strait [of Hormuz] for political reasons without also completing destroying its own oil exports revenue stream,” he added. On a practical note, even before U.S. sanctions were re-imposed in May 2018, the Kharg terminal was not ideal for use by tankers as the narrowness of the Strait of Hormuz means that they have to travel extremely slowly through it.

Global oil demand set to decline in 2020 as COVID-19 spreads: analysts | S&P Global Platts – Oil demand is set to contract in 2020 as the coronavirus outbreak widened to 72 countries outside China as of Wednesday, threatening to put more pressure on the global economy and fuel demand, according to analyst projections this week. This is notable because oil demand has consistently increased every year for several decades, with the exception of a few occasions like the early 1990s recession. A contraction in oil demand in 2020 will be the first decline since the financial crisis of 2008-2009. “Over the last week, the situation has worsened with outbreaks now in a number of additional countries,” Goldman Sachs analyst Damien Courvalin said in a report dated March 3. “We therefore reduce further our global oil demand growth forecasts to minus 0.15 million b/d in 2020 from 0.55 million b/d previously (and 1.1 million b/d before the coronavirus), its lowest annual growth rate since the financial crisis of 08/09,” Courvalin added. He said the revisions were entirely outside China given the bank’s aggressive cuts made initially to China’s oil demand growth, the sharp slowdown in new coronavirus cases in China and steady but slow signs of recovery in domestic activity. Goldman Sachs expects a global oil demand loss of 2.1 million b/d in the first half of the year alone, and cut its oil price forecasts, expecting Brent to trough in April at $45/b before gradually recovering to $60/b by the end of the year. It earlier expected a $53/b trough and a recovery to $65/b. Separately, energy consulting firm Facts Global Energy said it expects global oil demand to contract by 220,000 b/d on average in 2020, “with strong risks still on the downside we believe, despite a major initiative now for a global economic stimulus.” “Global oil demand is now expected to contract by 2.3 million b/d year on year in the first quarter of 2020, before only returning to year-on-year growth in the third quarter of 2020,” FGE said. It had slashed its oil demand growth forecast to zero for 2020 last month. “The source of oil demand in its essence is very simple: producing things and moving things/people. If, as is happening now, production lines slow down or even stand still and global trade and travel stops, oil demand stops growing as well,” FGE said.

OPEC February oil output sinks on Libyan unrest, cuts – (Reuters) – OPEC oil output dropped in February to the lowest in over a decade as Libyan supply collapsed due to a blockade of ports and oilfields and Saudi Arabia and other Gulf members overdelivered on a new production-limiting accord, a Reuters survey found. On average, the 13-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 27.84 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, according to the survey, down 510,000 bpd from January’s figure. Despite the drop in supply, crude prices LCOc1 have slipped to below $50 a barrel on concern that the coronavirus outbreak will cut oil demand. OPEC and its allies meet this week to discuss further steps to support the market. [nnL9N2AP001] OPEC, Russia and other allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to deepen an existing supply cut by 500,000 bpd from Jan. 1, 2020. OPEC’s share of the new reduction is about 1.17 million bpd, to be made by 10 members, all except Iran, Libya and Venezuela. The 10 OPEC members bound by the agreement easily exceeded the pledged cuts in February thanks to Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies cutting more than called for to support the market. Still, an increase in production by Iraq and Nigeria – both laggards in delivering on previous OPEC+ agreements – meant that OPEC complied with 128% of the pledged cuts in February, the survey found, down from 133% in January.

Oil Freefall Halted by OPEC+ Hope— Expectations the OPEC+ alliance will deepen output cuts put a floor under last week’s 16% plunge in oil prices, with futures in New York rebounding even as the coronavirus continued to spread rapidly. Russia is ready to cooperate to support the world oil market, even though it’s comfortable with current prices, President Vladimir Putin said Sunday. That acted as a brake on plunging crude prices after a Chinese manufacturing gauge released over the weekend came in at a record low, undershooting already weak expectations and highlighting the mounting economic impact of the virus. The rebound in oil came amid a broader recovery from last week’s carnage, with Asian stocks rising and commodities from copper to soybeans showing gains. Still, sharp swings in crude in Asian trading hours — from a loss of 3.2% to a gain of 3.7% — show the extent to which the virus is roiling markets. Oil consumption may not grow at all this year for only the fourth time in almost four decades, according to a growing minority of traders, investors and analysts. While economic stimulus in China and elsewhere may revive demand in the second half, it’s unlikely to completely make up for the current hit to consumption. Against this backdrop, OPEC+ meets on Thursday and Friday in Vienna to decide on the extent of production cuts. “Oil is on a wild ride today with bigger expectations for OPEC+ to reduce production in its meeting this week countered by the risk on consumption coming from the coronavirus outbreak,” said Stephen Innes, chief market strategist at AxiCorp Ltd. But any OPEC+ bounce will likely be short-lived until the virus starts subsiding, he said. West Texas Intermediate futures for April delivery rose 2.5% to $45.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7:40 a.m. in London. Last week’s drop of 16.2% was the biggest since the height of the global financial crisis in December 2008. Brent futures for May delivery climbed 2.6% to $50.98 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after losing as much as 2.6% earlier. The global crude benchmark traded at a premium of $4.97 to WTI for the same month. Putin said the OPEC+ mechanism “has already established itself as an effective tool in ensuring long-term stability in global energy markets.” The fact that Russia has large financial reserves to cushion market turbulence “doesn’t eliminate the need for action,” he said. That represents a change in tone from Moscow, which had previously been cautious on deeper output cuts.

Oil Jumps on Reassurances by Central Bankers— Oil advanced the most in five months amid expectations central banks will move to prop up financial markets and OPEC will curb supplies in response to the virus-driven demand shock. Futures rose 4.5% in New York on Monday after six straight losing sessions. Equity markets also surged after central bankers from around the world offered reassurances they’ll take stabilization measures as the coronavirus disrupts economic activity. Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia are preparing to discuss output this week in Vienna. “It’s a remarkable bounce back in concert with the recovering global financial markets,” said Marshall Steeves, an analyst at IHS Markit. “Investors are pricing in a coordinated global response by central banks.” Economic growth may sink to levels not seen in more than a decade as the coronavirus that emerged in China late last year wreaks havoc on manufacturing, consumer demand and transport, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development warned. West Texas Intermediate futures for April delivery gained $1.99 to settle at $46.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent futures for May delivery climbed 4.5% to $51.90 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. OPEC and allied producers are expected to declare a 750,000-barrel cut to daily production rates when they meet later this week, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, traders and brokers.

Oil surges more than 4% in best day since September as hopes of OPEC cut counter virus gloom – Oil prices rose on Monday, reversing an earlier fall to multi-year lows as hopes of a deeper cut in output by OPEC and stimulus from central banks countered worries about damage to demand from the coronavirus outbreak. Brent crude rose 4.3%, or $2.20, to trade at $51.87 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.99, or 4.45%, to settle at $46.75 per barrel. It was the first gain for both benchmarks after six sessions of losses triggered by coronavirus worries. The virus, which originated in China, has killed nearly 3,000 people and roiled global markets as investors brace for a steep knock to world growth. Equities underwent their biggest rout since the 2008 financial crisis last week although European and Asian shares steadied on Monday. The scale of losses last week led financial markets to price in policy responses from the U.S. Federal Reserve to the Bank of Japan, which indicated on Monday it would take necessary steps to stabilise financial markets. “The comments of Russian President Vladimir Putin, that Russia will keep cooperating with OPEC and its allies, are also helping ahead of the important oil producer meetings at the end of this week,” UBS oil analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Data released over the weekend by China, the world’s top energy consumer, dragged on oil prices earlier in the session. Factory activity in the country shrank at the fastest pace ever in February, underscoring the colossal damage from the coronavirus outbreak on its economy. . However, several key members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are mulling an additional production cut in the second quarter, with fears the virus outbreak will erode oil demand.

OPEC will ‘go beyond’ what the market has currently priced in, strategist says – OPEC could deliver a larger-than-expected production cut at its meeting later this week, according to MUFG Bank. Oil prices have been under pressure since the outbreak of the coronavirus in January dampened the demand outlook for the year. Following the “massive sell-off” in recent weeks, Ehsan Khoman, head of MENA research at MUFG, said his “baseline scenario” is 1.2 million barrels a day of additional production cuts from the second quarter of 2020 until the end of the year. “We think that OPEC will deliver, we think that they will go out of their way, and they will go beyond what’s currently priced in,” he said. “This 1.2 million barrels a day of our baseline case for the next nine months is what’s going to cause the next leg higher in oil prices in the week ahead,” he added. When asked whether there’s consensus in the alliance for a cut of that magnitude, Khoman acknowledged that the differing oil market strategies of Saudi Arabia and Russia would be a “key sticking point.” Riyadh generally prefers higher oil prices, while Moscow is comfortable with $50 oil. “But we think, in the spirit of keeping the OPEC agreement alive, they will (take) coordinated action when they meet this week in Vienna,” he said.

Oil Prices Rebound As Central Banks Intervene – Tuesday, March 3, Oil prices staged a rebound at the start of the week, in part from investors buying the dip, but mostly because of emergency action from central banks and promising noises from OPEC members. Interest rate cuts could cushion the economic blow. But the spread of the coronavirus is far from contained, and uncertainty and downside risk remain.. The U.S. Federal Reserve moved quickly to cut interest rates, slashing them by half a point on Tuesday. “The coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity,” the Fed said in a statement. “In light of these risks and in support of achieving its maximum employment and price stability goals, the Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point.” The OECD said that global GDP growth will slow to 2.4 percent, down from 2.9 percent previously. That is its best-case scenario, with downside risk related to the coronavirus. OPEC may agree to deeper supply cuts this week, although it is not clear whether or not Russia will go along. Russian President Vladimir Putin said over the weekend that Moscow is content with current prices. “Saudi Arabia wants to hold prices from falling, but Russia is still not agreeing. So the only way might be for OPEC to cut alone, which will not send a good signal to the market,” an OPEC source told Reuters. On Tuesday, a Russian oil executive said that a 1-mb/d cut would balance the market. OPEC’s oil production fell to 27.84 mb/d in February, down 510,000 bpd from a month earlier. That was also the lowest level of output in 10 years. The Interior Department is set to finalize a plan for selling acreage in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). The oil majors face poor returns, increasing hostility from investors, long-term demand concerns and low prices. The oil and gas industry “has reached a mature and declining phase, with a weak financial outlook,” according to a new report. The state of Wyoming is in talksto purchase millions of acres of land from Occidental Petroleum, a sum that could range between $1 and $3 billion. Occidental is in need of asset disposals in order to pay down debt. Wyoming sees an opportunity in mining, ranching and oil and gas drilling. Critics say the move would expose the state even more to extraction industries – already the state’s revenues are declining with the demise of coal.

Oil gains nearly 1% as traders eye OPEC meeting – Oil prices moved higher on Tuesday, but quickly came off session highs reached after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates in an emergency move designed to shield the world’s largest economy from the impact of the coronavirus.The central bank’s statement said it was cutting rates by a half percentage point to a target range of 1.00% to 1.25%. Crude futures spiked after the financial stimulus but quickly changed course as traders viewed the Fed’s move as a signal that the situation was more serious than many had thought, said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York.”I think the rate cut was expected to happen this week and while it adds liquidity to the market, it does little to encourage anyone to book a flight anywhere,” said Scott Shelton, an energy broker with ICAP in Durham, North Carolina. “I think the market effects are short lived when it comes to the price of oil.”U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 43 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $47.18 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude was 17 cents lower at $51.73 per barrel. Both futures contracts rose by more than 3% earlier in the session.Brent and WTI have rebounded over the past two days after sliding more than 20% from their January peak on signs the spread of the coronavirus had dented fuel demand.

OPEC Divided As Saudi Arabia Pushes For Deeper Cuts – As top officials from OPEC countries start to arrive in Vienna for this week’s OPEC+ meeting, OPEC’s top producer Saudi Arabia is pushing for a huge cut of more than 1 million bpd, while restive cartel producer Libya, which has lost 1 million bpd due to the port blockade, thinks that there’s no need for additional cuts on top of that outage. Saudi Arabia wants the OPEC+ coalition to agree to a collective cut of more than 1 million bpd, delegates told Bloomberg on Wednesday.On Tuesday, the Joint Technical Committee of the OPEC+ group, meeting before the regular OPEC meeting, considered bigger oil production cuts – between 600,000 bpd and 1 million bpd, and ended up recommending additional cuts of at least 600,000 bpd. But the head of Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC), Mustafa Sanalla, told S&P Global Platts on Wednesday that additional deeper cuts were “not logical” and that the 1 million bpd outage in Libya was “enough”. “I think there is no need to reduce because they’ve already now lost 1 million b/d,” Sanalla said, as carried by Platts. Some analysts have warned in the past weeks that the OPEC+ decision is being complicated not only by the uncertainty regarding the recovery of Chinese and global oil demand, but also by the Libyan outage with uncertain timelines as to when the country could return 1 million bpd to the market. Meanwhile, Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Zangeneh told reporters in Vienna that there is an oversupply on the market and “it’s necessary that OPEC and non-OPEC do something for the balance in the market,” Iran’s oil ministry’s news service Shanareported. The partners need to cut at least 500,000 bpd of their production, Zangeneh said, noting that in his opinion, “the Russians would resist until the last moment not to lower their output.” Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that Moscow would continue to play ball and cooperate with OPEC, although it sees current oil prices as “acceptable.”

U.S. oil climbs, but ends off the day’s high as Fed rate cut raises worries about COVID-19’s economic fallout – U.S. benchmark oil futures finished modestly higher on Tuesday and off the day’s best levels, while global benchmark crude prices settled lower as a surprise, inter-meeting interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve caused traders to worry more about the global economic fallout of the COVID-19 epidemic. Prices had traded sharply higher earlier in the session, buoyed by expectations for a further cut to oil production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. The Fed’s move is “a sign that the economic fall out may be worse than expected,” “There seems to be a lot of uncertainty, but we know that ultimately the rate cut will stabilize the market,” he told MarketWatch. “Don’t be surprised if we get a snap back later.” April West Texas Intermediate crude CLJ20, +0.47% rose 43 cents or 0.9%, to settle at $47.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The global benchmark, May Brent crude BRNK20, -0.17%, however, moved lower to settle down 4 cents, or 0.08%, at $51.86 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. It traded as high as $53.90 during the session. Both grades of crude oil posted gains of 4.5% on Monday – the biggest daily percentage rise of the year so far. A Tuesday statement from Group of Seven financial ministers indicated a willingness to use fiscal and monetary policy to fight the coronavirus impact on the economy but the statement didn’t outline specific steps. Meanwhile, OPEC ministers were gathering in Vienna ahead of a key March 5-6 meeting with allied oil producers to help determine the magnitude of cuts to output that might be needed to combat the impact on demand of the coronavirus epidemic, according to Reuters, which also reported that media will not be allowed to enter the secretariat to cover the two-day meeting due to fears of the spread of coronavirus. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which monitors compliance with the production-cut agreement, is set to meet on Wednesday.

Saudis Want OPEC+ to Cut More Than 1MM Barrels— Saudi Arabia is urging OPEC+ to agree to an oil-output cut of more than 1 million barrels a day to compensate for the hit to demand from the global spread of the coronavirus, delegates said. The Saudi push reflects mounting concern that growth in fuel consumption could be wiped out this year as the raging outbreak wreaks havoc on the world economy. Following oil’s biggest weekly slump since the 2008 financial crisis, ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are descending on Vienna for a crucial meeting on deepening supply curbs. The Saudi suggestion represents a larger cut than that put forward by the group’s technical committee on Tuesday. The panel recommended a 600,000 to 1 million-barrel-a-day reduction in the second quarter, more ambitious than curbs mooted in February but still short of some estimates of the demand loss. Crude jumped as much as 2.1% in New York, before paring gains to trade at $47.42 a barrel as of 11:18 a.m. London time. Prices slumped 16% last week, and remain too low for most OPEC+ members to balance their budgets. To secure a supply cut that could stop the rout, OPEC+ must overcome Russian resistance while also grappling with the risks of bringing together delegations from 23 nations as the deadly disease continues to spread. One of those members, Iran, has a serious outbreak at home affecting members of parliament. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh arrived in the Austrian capital on Wednesday without his usual cohort of government officials. He refused to be drawn on the possible extent of production curbs, and said Russia is likely to wait until the last moment to make any decision.

Oil Up After OPEC+ Experts Suggest Deeper Cuts — Oil’s rebound extended into a third day after OPEC+ experts recommended deeper production cuts to combat the demand hit from the coronavirus before the group meets later this week. The Joint Technical Committee suggested an additional output reduction of 600,000 to 1 million barrels a day during the second quarter, according to delegates. Ministerial meetings are scheduled for Thursday and Friday in Vienna. That came after an emergency half-percentage point interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve failed to revive U.S. stocks on Tuesday. While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are widely expected to go ahead with additional output cuts, whether they will be enough to prop up prices given the magnitude of the consumption loss is uncertain. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is forecasting demand will shrink by 150,000 barrels a day this year, the least since the global financial crisis. “The market has been pricing in up to 1 million barrels-a-day of OPEC+ cuts,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. “Producers will have to deliver a bigger surprise at the meeting if they hope to prop up oil prices further.” West Texas Intermediate futures for April delivery rose 49 cents, or 1%, to $47.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7:27 a.m. in London after climbing as much as 2.1%. The contract has advanced more than 6% since Friday after plunging 16% last week. Brent futures for May increased 0.9% to $52.31 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. The global crude benchmark traded at a premium of $4.49 to WTI for the same month. For OPEC+ to secure a significant output cut to stem a price rout, the group must overcome Russian resistance. The outbreak has worsened since the Joint Technical Committee last met in February. At that meeting, they recommended an output cut of just 600,000 barrels a day.

OPEC+ Mulling Virus Impact on Oil Before Meeting — OPEC and its allies have started reviewing their estimate of the damage to oil demand from the coronavirus, laying the ground for ministers to discuss production cuts at a crucial meeting later this week. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies face an unprecedented challenge as the epidemic that started in China threatens to become a global pandemic. Growth in fuel consumption could be wiped out this year and prices have just had their biggest weekly drop since the global financial crisis. To secure a supply cut that could stop the rout, the group must overcome Russian resistance while also grappling with the risks of bringing together delegations from 23 nations as the deadly disease continues to spread. One of those members, Iran, has a serious outbreak at home affecting top government officials. In an effort to limit potential contagion, OPEC will take the unprecedented step of blocking journalists from entering its Vienna headquarters during the meeting, said delegates. The OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee gathered in the Austrian capital on Tuesday to reappraise the impact of the epidemic. At their previous meeting in February, they recommended a production cut of 600,000 barrels a day, but the outbreak has worsened since then. The experts are looking at five scenarios for demand, said one delegate, who asked not to be named because the talks were private. Those numbers will determine whether the previous recommendation for the size of the cut is maintained, said another delegate. With flights canceled in Europe, schools closed in Japan, towns quarantined in Italy and a rising death toll from Iran to Washington state, the coronavirus crisis has gone global, and with it, its impact on energy demand. For only the fourth time in almost 40 years, oil consumption may not grow at all in 2020, according to a growing minority of traders, investors and analysts. That possibility is reflected in crude, which slumped 16% in New York last week, the biggest drop since December 2008. The market has rebounded somewhat, but at about $48 a barrel on Tuesday prices remain too low for most of the cartel’s members to balance their budgets.

WTI Holds Around $48 After Crude Production Hit New Record Highs, Refined Product Stocks Tumble – Oil prices extended gains this morning on the back of hopes for 1.2mm b/d production cut from OPEC+ (and entirely dismissing reports that Russia is against the idea), after a smaller than expected API crude build last night.“In terms of fundamentals the numbers are being changed very quickly,” says Olivier Jakob, managing director of Petromatrix GmbH. “It’s going to be about OPEC and the reaction to that. There’s a lot of uncertainty.” For now we focus on the official inventory data. DOE:

• Crude +784k (+3mm exp)
• Cushing -1.971mm – biggest draw since Dec 2019
• Gasoline -4.339mm (-1.87mm exp) – biggest draw since April 2019
• Distillates -4.008mm (-2mm exp) – biggest draw since March 2019

The sixth weekly crude build in a row (though considerably less than expected) was offset by huge product draws…

Oil prices settle lower as OPEC+ appears to struggle to reach an agreement on output cuts – Oil futures settled lower on Wednesday as oil producers struggled to reach an agreement on production cuts in Vienna in an effort to stabilize prices on the heels of a demand slowdown sparked by the COVID-19 epidemic.The Energy Information Administration, meanwhile, reported a sixth straight weekly rise in U.S. crude supplies, adding further pressure on prices.“Despite subdued imports, and oil exports coming in well above 4 million barrels per day, a big drop in refining activity has propelled oil inventories to a sixth consecutive build,” said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData. “Countering the bearish crude build has been solid draws to the products.”April West Texas Intermediate crude CLJ20, +0.70% fell 40 cents, or nearly 0.9%, to settle at $46.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading as high as $48.41. The global benchmark, May Brent crude BRNK20, +0.50% shed 73 cents, or 1.4%, at $51.13 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.Data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday revealed that U.S. crude supplies rose by 785,000 barrels for the week ended Feb. 28. The government agency had reports increases in each of the previous five weeks. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts expected the data to show a rise of 3.5 million barrels. The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a climb of 1.7 million barrels.

OPEC agrees on massive oil supply cut to offset virus impact; awaits Russia’s approval – OPEC has agreed to impose a deeper round of production cuts in order to support oil prices, paving the way for crunch talks with non-OPEC leader Russia, who still has to agree to the plan. The 14-member group, led by Saudi Arabia, decided on Thursday to cut production by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) through the second quarter of the year. OPEC added the group would review this policy at its next meeting on June 9. The proposed cuts, which were at the top end of analyst expectations, are believed to be conditional on approval from Russia. It means energy market participants will now turn their attention to a meeting of both OPEC and non-OPEC members, sometimes referred to as OPEC+, on Friday. Ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, analysts were concerned a long-standing energy alliance between Saudi Arabia and Russia would come under intense scrutiny. That’s because Russia’s appetite for deeper production cuts has been far from certain in recent weeks. Moscow is reportedly in favor of an extension to the current level of cuts rather than a further reduction. Oil prices reversed early gains to move lower on Thursday. International benchmark Brent crude traded at $50.85 for a loss of 28 cents, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate stood at $46.64, around 0.3% lower. Speaking shortly after the OPEC meeting on Thursday, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said that Tehran would remain exempt from the proposed reduction.

Oil Falls on Saudi-Russia Discord— Oil slipped amid a split between Saudi Arabia and Russia over whether deeper production cuts are required to offset the demand hit from the coronavirus epidemic. Futures fell 0.9% in New York Wednesday. The first day of OPEC+’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting culminated in Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak leaving the gathering amid disagreement on the scope of proposed oil production curbs. Riyadh has pushed for a supply reduction as big as 1.5 million barrels a day, while Moscow favors maintaining output at current levels through to the end of the second quarter. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the committee made a “wonderful” recommendation but declined to provide details. OPEC+ ministers will discuss the recommendation at talks in Vienna on Thursday and Friday. “OPEC’s meeting falling apart hurt the momentum oil had built,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. “The market is going to need production cuts if it is ever going to stabilize.” The coronavirus outbreak has worsened since the Joint Technical Committee first recommended a production cut of 600,000 barrels a day in February. OPEC and its allies are widely expected to agree on deeper output cuts, but it’s not clear whether that will be enough to bolster oil. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and two consultants said they expect demand to shrink in 2020 for only the fourth time in nearly 40 years. Italy announced a nationwide closing of its schools until March 15 in an effort to curb the worst outbreak in Europe while, in the U.S., Los Angeles County reported six new cases. Total coronavirus cases globally topped 93,000. Meanwhile, government data showed that U.S. oil stockpiles rose by 784,000 barrels last week, well below the 3 million barrel forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg survey. U.S. crude oil production hit an all-time high at 13.1 million barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The market also got some support from the bigger-than-expected draws in gasoline and diesel stockpiles. West Texas Intermediate futures for April delivery fell 40 cents to settle at $46.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent futures for May fell 73 cents to $51.13 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange, putting its premium over WTI at $4.18.

Oil prices rise on report OPEC agrees to cut by 1.5 million barrels per day if Russia agrees – Oil prices were higher on Thursday, shortly after two sources told Reuters that OPEC provisionally agreed to cut production by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd). OPEC will now look to secure backing from non-OPEC partners, most notably Russia, on Friday. International benchmark Brent crude traded at $51.52 Thursday morning, up around 0.8%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $47.10, around 0.7% higher. “An agreement to reduce the OPEC+ group output level by at least 1 million bpd is imperative, otherwise oil prices will re-visit the recent lows and possibly break below them,” said oil broker PVM’s Tamas Varga. Robert Ryan, chief energy strategist at BCA Research also said the absence of a new output deal would depress the market. “We would expect a sell-off in crude oil that takes Brent prices below $50 per barrel, and WTI into the mid-$40s,” he said, referring to the impact of a failure to agree new cuts. Prices were supported earlier in the session by a lower-than-expected rise in crude oil inventories in the United States, alleviating some concerns of oversupply in the world’s biggest oil consumer. U.S. crude stocks rose modestly last week, less than analysts had expected, while U.S. oil exports rose to more than 4 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time since December, suggesting a rise in overseas demand. Concerns over demand growth remained, however. The head of the International Monetary Fund said the global spread of the virus has crushed hopes for stronger economic gains this year. China’s top gas importer PetroChina has declared force majeure on natural gas imports following the coronavirus outbreak. The company issued the notice, which allows the suspension of contractual obligations because of exceptional circumstances, to suppliers of piped gas and also to at least one liquefied natural gas supplier, although details could not immediately be confirmed.

Oil slides as demand worries overshadow OPEC deal to deepen supply cuts – (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Thursday as the coronavirus epidemic showed no signs of slowing, feeding worries about the global economy and prompting investors to sell more risky assets like stocks and crude oil and park money in safe havens. Oil’s losses came even as OPEC agreed to cut crude output by an extra 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter, its deepest cut since the 2008 financial crisis. The group made its action conditional on Russia and others joining. Analysts and traders said global oil markets were likely to be oversupplied in the second quarter as demand plummets. Brent crude LCOc1 fell by $1.14, or 2.2%, to settle at $49.99 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 ended the session down 88 cents, or 1.9%, at $45.90. OPEC will propose the new 1.5 million bpd cut be extended until the year end, sources said. Russia has so far indicated that it would back an extension rather than deeper production cuts. “Russia has so far dragged its feet in committing to more cuts,” Capital Economics analysts said in a note. “OPEC+ negotiations tomorrow are likely to be more contentious than today’s meeting. That said, the risk of a pandemic has escalated in the last week, and this may persuade Russia to agree to additional cuts.”

Oil Falls to a 3-Year Low on Ongoing OPEC+ Cut Indecision – — Brent crude settled below $50 a barrel for the first time since July 2017, as uncertainty loomed over whether Russia would agree to OPEC’s proposal for a large production cut.Futures in London fell 2.2% as OPEC ministers extended their initial proposal for a 1.5 million-barrel-a-day supply reduction to year-end, according to delegates. The reduction is still contingent on Russia’s support, which is so far not evident. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo’s reassurance of the group’s commitment to stabilizing oil markets failed to quell oil prices.“There’s a lot of skepticism about Russia’s cooperation and that is causing distress in the market” The need for the oil cartel to curb supply will be more pressing this year as global markets falter over fears of the coronavirus, or Covid-19, spreading, which is also denting oil demand. Oil producers are struggling against a weakening demand outlook, the likes of which hasn’t been seen in years.OPEC estimates oil-demand growth at just 480,000 barrels a day this year, down from a forecast of 990,000 barrels last month. Large Wall Street banks and consultancies are even anticipating global oil demand contracting in 2020 for only the fourth time in nearly four decades. The International Energy Agency will slash its estimates on Monday, the group’s executive director Fatih Birol said in Washington. . Brent futures for May dropped $1.14 to settle at $49.99 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate futures for April delivery fell 1.9% or, 88 cents, to settle at $45.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Other oil-market news:

• Gasoline futures fell 2.2% to settle at $1.5218 per gallon.
• Global oil demand could drop in 2020 due to the virus outbreak, Equinor CEO Eldar Saetre said in an interview. “There’s a high level of uncertainty and a broad range of outcomes,” he said.
• Saudi Aramco is delaying the release of its monthly crude-pricing announcement, an exceptional step by the world’s biggest oil exporter, as it waits to see if the OPEC+ alliance will deepen cuts in global output.
• Exxon Mobil Corp. is slowing the pace of its flagship development in the Permian, one of the first signs that oil majors are throttling back on production in response to the recent price slump.

‘No guarantee’ that Saudi Arabia will get what it wants at the OPEC meeting, expert says – If Saudi Arabia wants OPEC and its allies to agree to lower oil output, it will likely have to do “a lot of the heavy-lifting,” one oil watcher has told CNBC. OPEC is pushing for possible production cuts at its meeting in Vienna on Thursday and Friday. Prices have struggled following the global outbreak of the new coronavirus, which caused demand for crude to fall. OPEC’s top producer Saudi Arabia is hoping for a significant cut. The 14-member group decided on Thursday to cut production by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) through the second quarter of the year. But non-OPEC leader Russia is still yet to agree to the effort. “There’s no guarantee that they’re going to be able to get a deal,” Herman Wang, S&P Global Platts’ Middle East and OPEC managing editor, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” Thursday. “Likely, if Saudi Arabia wants a deal, they’re going to have to do a lot of the heavy-lifting themselves.” Victor Shum of IHS Markit did not rule out the possibility of Saudi Arabia giving up on the cuts. “They need Russian participation, and if Russia doesn’t join, they may say ‘well, let prices take the burden to adjust’,” he said. “This is a make or break moment indeed,” he told “Capital Connection.” Brent crude traded at around $51.22 in Asia’s evening hours, up 0.18%, while U.S. crude futures were trading at $46.89, 0.24% higher. Both are around 20% down from the beginning of 2020. Shum, the vice president of energy consulting at IHS Markit, said this situation is similar to what happened in 2014, when Moscow rejected Riyadh’s requests to cut jointly. Prices fell sharply when Saudi Arabia decided to keep production stable. This time, he said he expects Russia to agree to the cuts “eventually, at the last moment,” though the Saudis will need to take on the burden of cutting the most.

‘I cannot see us not agreeing’ on an OPEC+ production cut: UAE energy minister – Ahead of meetings with non-OPEC allies in Vienna Friday, the UAE’s energy minister appeared confident that Russia would agree to proposed production cuts. OPEC members on Thursday agreed to lower output by 1.5 million barrels a day until the end of the year in response to falling oil prices, which have been under pressure since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. But that proposal will need approval from the group’s allies – most prominently, Russia – a non-OPEC leader. “We are hoping. Russia is a very important member,” UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei told reporters, when asked about whether Moscow will accept the cuts. “I cannot see us not agreeing because that’s very important for the market and everyone is keen,” he said. The minister also added that OPEC will not act without its non-member allies. “I cannot see us, unilaterally as OPEC, doing a deal,” he said. Why oil remains under pressure That may be playing into the market’s fears, RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft said. “There is a concern about what happens if Russia says no,” she said, when asked why oil prices were sliding despite the alliance’s agreement on Thursday. “OPEC came out yesterday, basically put the cut on the table, but said it’s all in or nothing,” she told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Friday. “I think we’re likely to get a yes today, but it’s certainly by no means certain,” she said.

Oil dives more than 3% after Russia rejects steeper OPEC+ cut – Oil prices slid more than 3% on Friday after Reuters reported that Russia will not agree to steeper oil output cuts by OPEC and its allies to support prices in the face of a slump in oil demand because of the global coronavirus outbreak. Brent and WTI crude futures tumbled by nearly $3 a barrel after the report. By 1057 GMT Brent crude was down $1.74, or 3.4%, at $48.25 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down $1.56, or 3.4%, at $44.34. A Russian high-level source told Reuters on Friday that Moscow would not back an OPEC call for extra reductions in oil output and would agree only to an extension of existing cuts by OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+. Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, said in a research note that Russian President Vladimir Putin “likely wants to take this to the brink, to maximise his own geopolitical leverage to get OPEC Middle Eastern countries coming to him begging to agree to cuts.” “I guess then he will ask for concessions elsewhere, e.g. Gulf financing for Syria reconstruction,” Ash said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) held talks with its allies on Friday after the group told Russia and others that it favored an additional 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of cuts until the end of 2020. Non-OPEC states were expected to contribute 500,000 bpd to the overall extra cut, OPEC ministers said. The new deal would mean OPEC+ production curbs amounting to a total of 3.6 million bpd, or about 3.6% of global supply. Some analysts had expected Moscow to endorse the agreement. Global stock markets tumbled on Friday as disruptions to business from the spreading coronavirus epidemic worsened. European shares opened sharply lower, with travel stocks bearing the brunt.

OPEC+ fails to agree on massive supply cut, sending crude prices to 2017 lows – OPEC and non-OPEC allies have failed to agree on how much oil production to cut amid the coronavirus outbreak, with Russia reportedly refusing to give the green light to the deepest supply cuts since the global financial crisis. Oil prices initially slipped Friday afternoon on reports that Moscow said it wasn’t prepared to approve a further reduction in production. Later, Reuters also reported that OPEC and its allies had even failed to agree on rolling over existing cuts, further weighing on crude prices. Then a statement by the oil group said that it would continue discussions and made no mention of any cuts. International benchmark Brent crude traded at $45.46 Friday afternoon, down over 8%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $41.93, also around 8% lower. Both benchmarks were trading at lows not seen since 2017. Brent futures have fallen more than 30% since climbing to an early January peak, with WTI down almost one-third over the same period. On Thursday, OPEC recommended additional production cuts of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from the beginning of next month until the end of the year. The 14-member group had scheduled a meeting on June 9 to review the policy. The proposal was conditional on support from non-OPEC producers, including Russia. OPEC cautioned that the deal could only be applied on a pro-rata basis with core members set to cut 1 million bpd and non-OPEC partners expected to cut 500,000 bpd. OPEC and non-OPEC producers, sometimes referred to as OPEC+, were expected to meet in Vienna, Austria on Friday to discuss this proposal, but talks have been delayed. “It is truly a go big or go home moment for this organization,” Helima Croft, head of global commodities strategy at RBC, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Friday morning. “If Russia says no today, there are real questions about the viability of the OPEC+ arrangement.”

Oil takes biggest daily dive in over a decade as Russia, OPEC split – (Reuters) – Brent slid to its biggest daily loss in more than 11 years on Friday after Russia balked at OPEC’s proposed steep production cuts to stabilize prices hit by economic fallout from the coronavirus, and OPEC responded by removing limits on its own production. More than 1 million U.S. crude contracts changed hands during the session, as the three-year pact between OPEC and Russia ended in acrimony. “Prices plunged because the OPEC confab ended up being an epic fail on the part of all involved. Russia has clearly decided to employ a scorched earth approach to the oil market: every country for itself,” Brent futures had their its biggest daily percentage fall since December 2008, down $4.72, or 9.4%, to settle at $45.27 a barrel. It was Brent’s lowest closing price since June 2017. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped $4.62, or 10.1%, to $41.28, its lowest close since August 2016 and the largest daily percentage loss since November 2014. More than 4.58 million U.S. front-month crude contracts changed hands this week, the busiest week ever for that contract. Both Brent and WTI are down over 30% so far this year. The split between OPEC and Russia revived fears of a 2014 oil price crash, when Saudi Arabia and Russia fought for market share with U.S. shale oil producers, which have never participated in output-limiting pacts. OPEC was pushing for an additional 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of cuts until the end of 2020. Non-OPEC states were expected to contribute 500,000 bpd to the overall extra cut, OPEC ministers said. The new deal would have meant OPEC+ production curbs amounting to a total of 3.6 million bpd, or about 3.6% of global supply. “From (April 1) all oil producers are allowed to produce as much as they like,” analysts at ABN AMRO said in a report. The Dutch bank cut its Brent oil price forecast for 2020 by 15.5% to $49 a barrel from the previous forecast of $58.

Oil plunges 10% for worst day in more than 5 years after OPEC+ fails to agree on a massive production cut — Oil prices plunged more than 10% to multi-year lows on Friday as OPEC’s allies rejected additional production cuts that the organization proposed Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slid 10.07%, or $4.62, to settle at $41.28, its lowest level since Aug. 2016. It was WTI’s worst day since Nov. 28, 2014. Earlier in the session WTI traded as low as $41.11 per barrel.International benchmark Brent crude slid more than 8% to trade at $45.62 per barrel. Its session low was $45.18, which is a price not seen since June 2017.The meeting between OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, concluded with no deal on additional production cuts. The cartel and its allies agreed to meet again to monitor the situation. The current production cuts will be in place until the end of March as planned, but it’s uncertain if they will extend beyond this month.Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told reporters leaving the meetings in Vienna on Friday that it meant that members could now pump what they liked starting April 1. “We have made this decision because no consensus has been found of how all the 24 countries should simultaneously react to the current situation. So as from April 1, we are starting to work without minding the quotas or reductions which were in place earlier but this does not mean that each country would not monitor and analyse market developments,” he said.On Thursday, OPEC recommended additional production cuts of 1.5 million barrels per day from the beginning of next month until the end of the year. The 14-member group scheduled a meeting on June 9 to review the policy.The proposal was conditional on support from non-OPEC producers, including Russia. OPEC cautioned that the deal could only be applied on a pro-rata basis with core members set to cut 1 million barrels per day and non-OPEC partners expected to cut 500,000 barrels per day. Oil has tumbled into bear market territory as the coronavirus outbreak has led to softer demand, and many on the Street expected OPEC to step in in a bid to prop up prices. “The OPEC+ confab is devolving into the worst case scenario for the group. Last night, the best case scenario for the group was touted: a cut of 1.5 million bpd through year-end. That scheme hinged on Russian participation, however, which is not forthcoming,” Kilduff said that without the additional cut of at least 1 million barrels per day WTI prices could head into the upper $30s.

Saudi Arabia detains senior royals for alleged coup plot, including king’s brother: sources – (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia has detained three senior Saudi princes including Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, the younger brother of King Salman, and Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the king’s nephew, for allegedly planning a coup, sources with knowledge of the matter said. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, King Salman’s son and de facto ruler of the country, the world’s top oil exporter and a key U.S. ally, has moved to consolidate power since ousting Mohammed bin Nayef as heir to the throne in a 2017 palace coup. Later that year, he arrested several royals and other prominent Saudis, holding them for months at Riyadh’s Ritz-Carlton hotel in an anti-corruption campaign that caused shockwaves at home and abroad. Five sources told Reuters that Prince Ahmed and Mohammed bin Nayef were detained in the latest operation. Three of the sources, including a regional source, said Mohammed bin Nayef and his half-brother, Nawaf, were picked up at a private desert camp on Friday. Two sources said Ahmed was taken from his home. Crown Prince Mohammed, also referred to as MbS, “accused them of conducting contacts with foreign powers, including the Americans and others, to carry out a coup d’etat,” the regional source said.

Dubai’s ruler abducted daughters and threatened former wife, UK judge rules –(Reuters) – Dubai’s ruler ordered the abduction of two daughters and orchestrated a campaign of intimidation against his former wife, a British judge has ruled, in what is likely to be a major blow to his reputation as a Middle East reformer. Judge Andrew McFarlane said he accepted as proved a series of allegations made by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum’s former wife, Princess Haya bint al-Hussein, during a custody battle over their two children at London’s High Court. Haya, the half-sister of Jordan’s King Abdullah, fled to London on April 15 last year with the children, Jalila, 12, and Zayed, 8, fearing for her safety amid suspicions that she had had an affair with one of her British bodyguards. Her lawyers argued that Mohammed’s treatment of two older daughters by another marriage showed her children were at risk of being abducted too. As part of the custody case, Andrew McFarlane, President of the Family Court division in England and Wales, made a series of “findings of fact” about allegations raised by Haya, 45, during hearings over the last nine months. McFarlane said he accepted her claim that Mohammed arranged for his daughter Shamsa, then aged 18, to be kidnapped off the streets of Cambridge in central England in 2000, and had her flown back to Dubai. He also ruled it was proved that the sheikh had arranged for Shamsa’s younger sister Latifa to be snatched from a boat in international waters off India by Indian forces in 2018 and returned to the emirate in what was her second failed escape attempt. Both remained there “deprived of their liberty”, McFarlane said.

Quick update on the Turkey vs Syria, Russia and Iran – Just a quick update: as I predicted, the Syrian forces have retaken most of the strategically crucial town of Saraqib. Russia has confirmed that Russian military police units have already entered the town.This crucial town was lost by the Syrians, largely due to the very effective use of attack drones by the Turks which the Syrians clearly did not anticipate. However, after an initial streak of painful losses, the Syrian air defenses, probably assisted by Russian experts, have now adapted and retaken the control of the airspace over Idlib and scores of Turkish drones have now been shot down.By the way, there was a hilarious incident when the Turkish-backed Takfiris declared that they had shot down a Su-24. After it became clear that what they really shot down was a Turkish drone, the Takfiris declared that it was a Syrian or Russian drone. Problem: on the wreckage you can easily see Turkish markings :-)In other news, it appears that there will be no four-way meeting in Istanbul, but that Erdogan will travel directly to Moscow to meet with Putin. Most observers believe that Erdogan is desperate and that he will beg Putin to agree to some kind of deal. I hesitate to make predictions when mentally unstable characters like Erdogan are involved, but my best guess is that Russia will agree to some kind of deal, but that this deal with reflect the failure of the current Turkish military operation. Specifically, I believe that Saraqib shall be fully liberated and that the Turks will have to de factorelinquish control over the M4 highway (some kind of “jointly administered neutral zone” might be agreed upon to place a small face-saving figleaf over Erdogan’s pride). Finally, Russia will have to give security guarantees to the Turks, including a promise not to arm the Kurds (with whom the Russians have a complex and ambiguous relationship anyway).

Turkey Asks NATO to Join Its War Against Syria and Russia – The spokesperson for the Islamist party of Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan has called upon all of NATO to go to war against Syria for Syria’s having killed dozens of Turkey’s troops in order for Syria to defeat Turkey’s invasion and military occupation of Syria’s Idlib Province, which borders on Turkey. Going to war against Syria would mean going to war also against Russia, which is in Syria to protect Syria’s sovereignty over its own territory. If the United States accepts that Turkish proposal, then World War III will consequently result. Darius Shahtahmasebi reported for Russia’s RT News on the morning of February 28th, Turkey is calling for NATO’s protection after 33 of its soldiers were killed in an apparent Syrian airstrike in Idlib, allegedly while fighting in terrorist ranks. In the regional chaos that ensues, only one player stands to gain. Speculation over what’s to come next has seen #article 5 trending on Twitter in the hours following the attacks, after Omer Celik, spokesman for Turkey’s ruling AKP party, indicated to reporters in Ankara that he was looking at requesting formal NATO protection against Damascus and, by proxy, the Russian air force. “We call on NATO to [start] consultations. This is not [an attack] on Turkey only, it is an attack on the international community. A common reaction is needed. The attack was also against NATO,” Celik told Turkish media. Article 5 of the NATO treaty says an attack on one member is an attack on them all. The US State Department also condemned the attack, stating that it stands by its “NATO ally Turkey.” It further stated that it continues to “call for an immediate end to this despicable offensive by the Assad regime, Russia and Iranian-backed forces.” Never one to let us down, the US envoy to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchinson also told journalists that “everything is on the table.” This is the opportunity for U.S. President Donald Trump to join his opposition, Democratic Party’s, and even his own Party’s, hate-Russia campaign, by unleashing World War III, if he wants to.

U.S. Offers Aid, not Missiles, as Turkey Pushes Back Syrian Forces – WSJ – As Turkey launches a military operation against the Syrian government, the U.S. is making a show of support for a NATO ally but stopping short of delivering weapons requested by Ankara.A group of senior U.S. officials in a visit to Turkey’s border Tuesday announced more than $100 million in new funding for United Nations aid programs providing food, blankets and other support to civilians in Syria.They also offered words of support for Turkey, whose military has launched a campaign to reverse advances by the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad that have forced nearly a million people to flee in the past three months. The visit highlights the fraught dynamic between the U.S. and Turkey, as Washington tries to reassure its military ally as it weighs Ankara’s requests for Patriot missiles and other American weaponry.“On those hills over there the Turkish military and the Syrian opposition are first of all fighting to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe,” said James Jeffrey, the U.S. special envoy on Syria, while visiting a refugee camp near Turkey’s border with the war-battered country. “Millions and millions of refugees, that’s the intent of Assad and his Russian and Iranian allies.”The Turkish operation comes as the crisis on its borders is reaching a boiling point. Millions of civilians are trapped in northwestern Syria, penned in by the Russian-backed Syrian government on one side and the Turkish border on the other. Fearing another massive influx of refugees and further killings of civilians, Turkey is now challenging Russia’s dominance of the airspace. Turkey said Tuesday it downed another Syrian warplane over the country, the third in two days. The sorties risk a broader confrontation with Moscow, which launched a campaign of airstrikes in 2015 that tipped the war in Mr. Assad’s favor.

US Carrier Strike Group Enters Mediterranean As Syria & Turkey Move To State Of War -Erdogan is urging US and NATO help to halt the Syrian-Russian offensive in Idlib, and elsewhere Libya is also turning into a full-blown major conflict involving external powers, notably also Turkey which is providing military support to Tripoli against Gen. Haftar’s offensive. Turkey and Syria are currently downing each other’s aircraft over Idlib province in a major escalation.And now the Marine Traffic maritime information portal has identified along with other international reports that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (or “Ike”) crossed through the Strait of Gibraltar and entered the Mediterranean Sea late Friday into Saturday, accompanied by multiple support ships.So far the White House has remained cool toward pledging military support to Turkey, however, if the carrier strike group eventually moves closer to the Syrian coast this week, it could be a worrisome sign of Washington’s intent to once again get involved militarily against Russia and the Syrian Army. This also as Russia’s Interfax news agency reported additional Russian warships currently en route to the eastern Mediterranean, including the frigate “Admiral Makarov” and “Admiral Grigorovich” which have consistently participated in operations off the Syrian coast. The US carrier group’s movements are ostensibly in support of a large US-European military exercise, being described as the first of its kind since the Cold War.

Assad Joins Forces With Libya’s Haftar To Combat Turkey – While recent generations have shown them reluctant to expand far beyond their borders, in the past few months Turkey has shown interest in overseas military engagements. Forces have been active in northern Syria with an eye toward regime change, and Turkey has also committed to military involvement in Libya. That’s given Turkey two potential enemies to worry about, and given them each a potential new ally. The Syrian government and Libya’s self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) under Gen. Khalifa Haftar have agreed to cooperation, and signed a memorandum of understanding to confront Turkish aggression. The LNA’s adjoining government, the eastern-based Tobruk Parliament, has confirmed it will be opening an embassy in Damascus. This will be the first Libyan embassy in Syria since the 2012 NATO-imposed regime change in Libya. Turkey’s Anadolu Agency reports:The Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad reopened the Libyan Embassy in Damascus on Tuesday after an 8-year hiatus and handed it over to the “government” of east Libya-based renegade commander Khalifa Haftar.The embassy was given to Haftar’s government after the two signed a memorandum of understanding to reopen embassies, the official SANA news agency reported. The Syrian regime has become the first to recognize Haftar’s government, which does not have international recognition.

Chaos As Thousands Of Refugees Charge Greek Border En Masse; 15,000 Surge Into EU Border Town – True to Erdogan’s prior threat that Europe would see 18,000 to as many as 30,000 refugees pour across European Union borders on Saturday after Turkey ‘opened the gates,’ it’s being reported that the number of migrants at Evros – a key land border between Turkey and Greece – has now reached 15,000. Throughout Saturday the area became a war zone as thousands of refugees, urged on by Turkish authorities, attempted to cross into Greece en masse.In places like the now completely closed Kastanies crossing (sealed by the Greek side as Turkish guards stood down and let migrants pass freely), thousands are stuck in ‘no man’s land’ between the borders, with the situation fast descending into chaos. According to the Greek daily Ekathimerini:This is the first time such a large group of migrants and refugees has attempted a crossing en masse at Evros, a move that Greek authorities are treating as a consequence of the announcement from the Turkish government on Thursday night that it would no longer prevent migrants trying to reach the European Union. Germany’s Der Spiegel published footage showing migrants hurling tear gas grenades at Greek police, reportedly canisters provided by Turkish security themselves. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis earlier vowed that “no illegal entries into Greece will be tolerated” – and has authorized a militarized response to seal border crossings with Turkey, which has included naval patrols in the Aegean to thwart migrant boats from passing. At the Kastanies crossing Greek guards were seen firing tear gas on tightly packed groups of hundreds of migrants:

Turkey Sends 1,000 Special Forces To EU Border To Prevent Migrant Return -Starting last week multiple journalists published proof that Turkish authorities were actively facilitating refugee and migrant movement toward EU borders after Erdogan began making good on his prior threat to ‘open the gates’ – angry over the unfolding Idlib crisis. This included footage of buses staged in Istanbul and other cities to take thousands to the land border with Greece. And now Ankara is now openly saying it’s implemented a policy of not only pushing migrants to the border, but ensuring they won’t come back – even after Greece shut its border and has been seen using harsh tactics to keep people from entering in a heightened militarized response. Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu announced Thursday the deployment of 1,000 special operations police officers to ensure migrants can’t return. “Turkey will deploy 1,000 special operations police officers to prevent migrant pushback at the border,” the minister said, according to Turkey’s Daily Sabah. The newspaper reported further: “Soylu told reporters that the European Union’s border protection agency Frontex and Greece have pushed 4,900 migrants back to Turkey since March 1.” He also claimed 164 migrants had been injured by Greek border security and Frontex.

US Attacks Taliban Positions In First Strike After Much-Hyped Truce Deal – It appears the official death of the so-called ‘historic’ peace deal between the United States and the Taliban, as the US military has bombed Taliban positions Wednesday in the first such strike after the truce deal, and the first attack in nearly two weeks.As we noted when it began unraveling Monday while the ink was barely dry after US State Department and Taliban representatives signed the truce in Doha Saturday, the first major milestone in the controversial deal that saw Washington engage with terrorists while desperately wanting to bring an end to the eighteen-year long occupation would have ultimately seen all American troops out of Afghanistan within 14 months. That now appears a pipe dream, and awkward timing to say the least, given President Trump just held a phone call with the Taliban’s top representative Tuesday. CNN reports of the details of the attack via drone strike:The United States conducted an airstrike Wednesday against Taliban fighters in Afghanistan who are accused of attacking an Afghan National Defense and Security Forces checkpoint, according to the US military.The strike comes hours after a telephone call between President Donald Trump and Taliban chief negotiator Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar on Tuesday amid reports that the Taliban had resumed violence in Afghanistan days after the US and the Taliban signed a historic agreement in Qatar on Saturday.A Pentagon spokesman for US forces in Afghanistan said in a series of statements, “The US conducted an airstrike Wednesday against Taliban fighters in Nahr-e Saraj, Helmand, who were actively attacking an #ANDSF checkpoint. This was a defensive strike to disrupt the attack. This was our 1st strike against the Taliban in 11 days.”

Massacre In Kabul Targeted Politicians, Leaves 27 Dead – Presidential Candidate Barely Escapes – At a crucial moment at which the historic US-Taliban peace deal appears hanging by a thread – if not already dead altogether – and as Pompeo is dubiously pledging to keep it alive and push forward, gunmen have carried out a massacre in Kabul which nearly killed top Afghan political leader, Abdullah Abdullah. At a moment top national leaders were attending a Shia commemoration ceremony in the Afghan capital, gunmen unleashed a hail of bullets in a major coordinated attack, killing at least 27 people, according to a health ministry statement. British soldiers responded to the massive Friday attack, via AP/CNN. “Twenty-seven bodies and 29 wounded transported by … ambulance so far,” a health ministry spokesman told Reuters in the aftermath. The number of wounded was later updated to at least 55 injured in the attack. Crucially, the country’s Chief Executive and presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah escaped unharmed, as well as the chairman of the Afghan High Peace Council Karim Khalili – who was giving a speech at the very moment the attack started, said to include rockets fired toward the crowd. Khalili is seen in video frantically leaving the stage mid-speech as gunfire rings out, fleeing for his life.

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