Written by Econintersect
Early Bird Headlines 19 July 2018
Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, published Monday, Wednesday and Friday, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
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​Global
- Asian shares trade mixed as early gains fade; yuan softens (CNBC) Asian stocks traded mixed on Thursday, with some markets losing steam after initially trading higher on the back of Wall Street’s earnings-led advance. The dollar index slipped from a three-week high but stayed above the 95 handle at 95.021. U.S. crude futures edged up by 0.07% to trade at $68.81 per barrel and Brent crude slipped 0.18% to trade at $72.77. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,227.55 an ounce at 0058 GMT.
- One side effect from Trump’s trade war could linger for years beyond his presidency (Business Insider)
- President Donald Trump’s abrupt, erratic approach to trade, even when he does not follow through on the harshest protectionist threats, is already damaging faith in the global trading system.
- “The Trump administration’s increased willingness to argue that conventional imports are a threat to national security could have an adverse impact on the global trading system over the long term,” write Nomura economists in a research note.
- NAFTA talks in particular are under threat from increasingly extreme requests on auto imports from the US delegation.
- Trade Restrictions for Services (The Daily Shot) Which nations have the worst restrictions on services provided by foreign companies? China has the most and Germany has the least restrictions.
U.S.
- Trump’s damage control falters (The Hill) President Trump on Wednesday said Russia does not pose a threat to the United States, contradicting his director of national intelligence on a critical security issue and deepening a controversy that began at his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Hours later, White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said Trump was actually indicating he was done answering questions when he responded “no” to a reporter who asked if he believes Russia is still seeking to meddle in U.S. political affairs.
- Russian ambassador: Trump made ‘verbal agreements’ with Putin (The Hill) Russia’s ambassador to the United States on Wednesday said President Trump made “important verbal agreements” with Russian President Vladimir Putin during their private conversation in Helsinki on Monday. Russian envoy Anatoly Antonov listed cooperation in Syria and arms control as two issues the world leaders had agreed on, according to The Washington Post. But the Post reported that the highest-level Trump administration officials still do not know what Trump promised Putin during their one-on-one meeting, which lasted more than two hours.
- When Will the Next US Recession Hit? (The Daily Shot) The majority of fund managers expect the next recession to begin in the second half of next year or the first half of 2020.
- Poll: only 28 percent of young voters say they will certainly vote in the 2018 midterms (Vox) Democrats are winning over younger voters by huge numbers, but as a highly contentious, voter turnout-dependent midterm election inches closer, there’s a serious question of whether these young Democrats will come to the polls. A recently released poll from the Public Religion Research Institute and The Atlantic conducted in June showed only 28% of young adults ages 18 to 29 say they are “absolutely certain” they’ll vote in midterms, compared to 74% of seniors.
There are other surveys with varied results; a recent poll conducted by the Associated Press and University of Chicago’s NORC found that 32 percent of young voters would certainly vote and 56 percent were likely to. Another poll by Cosmopolitan magazine and SurveyMonkey found that 48 percent of young voters were “absolutely certain” they’d vote in the midterms.
- Homeland Security Advisory Council members resign over ‘morally repugnant’ immigration policy (CNN) Four members of the Homeland Security Advisory Council, which advises the Department of Homeland Security, have resigned, saying in a letter that they can no longer be associated with the Trump administration’s immigration policies and calling the separation of migrant families “morally repugnant.” The letter, which was obtained by CNN, was addressed to Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen and signed by Richard Danzig, David Martin and Matthew Olsen — all former Democratic administration officials — and by Elizabeth Holtzman, a former Democratic congresswoman from New York.
- Senators are slamming Trump’s Putin meeting, but they aren’t going to do anything about it (Vox) Democrats and Republicans agree that something needs to be done about Russia in the wake of this week’s shocking Trump-Putin summit and the president’s baffling subsequent walkback of his comments. But few can agree on what exactly that should be, which probably means any efforts are doomed to failure. So far, members of both parties have widely condemned Trump’s press conference on Monday and expressed support for a hearing with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
UK
- Pound falls as inflation data put August rate rise in doubt (Financial Times) Price growth holds at 2.4% in June despite pressure from oil price increases. Analysts had expected that recent rises in the oil price would see the consumer price index rise by 2.6% in the year to June 2018.
- Pound May Re-Live June 2016 Nightmare If No Brexit Deal Clinched (Bloomberg) Tumbling out of the European Union without a deal in hand could cost the pound dearly.
Sterling could slump as much as 8 percent against the dollar if the U.K. doesn’t clinch a deal with the EU by March 29, when the nation is slated to leave the bloc, according to a survey of analysts. That would mirror the 8.1 percent drop the pound saw on June 24, 2016, the day after Britain voted to leave the union. A no-deal Brexit is still regarded as a somewhat low-probability outcome, with the poll assigning a 20 percent chance to it.
Syria
- Russian and Syrian authorities set up center for refugees returning to Syria (Reuters) Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Wednesday that Russian and Syrian authorities had set up a refugee center in Syria to help refugees return home from abroad.
Iran
- Iran claims it rejected Trump meeting requests 8 times (The Hill) A top Iranian official on Wednesday claimed Iran rejected eight requests to meet with President Trump last year. The meeting requests, which would have brought Trump together with Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, reportedly came during the United Nations General Assembly in 2017, The New York Times reported.
Russia
- White House weighs Putin proposal on questioning U.S. officials (Reuters) The White House on Wednesday declined to rule out accepting a Russian proposal for the questioning in the United States of Americans sought by the Kremlin for “illegal activities,” including Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Moscow and investment manager Bill Browder.
North Korea
- Tongue-lashings from North Korea’s Kim underscore shift in focus to economy (Reuters) North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s strident rebukes of officials during recent trips to industrial sites were aimed at rallying support at home for his economic drive and convincing outsiders about his willingness to denuclearize.
China
- Xi’s campaign to draw people back to greying rural China faces uphill battle (Reuters) China’s greying rural economies – many composed of small farm holdings and low-end industries – have seen slumping productivity with no alternative engine of economic growth in sight. The brain drain is so advanced that President Xi Jinping is now calling for the return of talent to the countryside – once unthinkable for a nation that sees urbanisation as a ticket to prosperity.
- Yuan Weakest vs Dollar Since Last Year (Twitter)
- China New Home Prices Accelerate (The Daily Shot) China’s new home price increases have accelerated. Existing home prices are lagging.